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U.S. Federal Reserve in Washington .(Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

Fragility or Back on Track? BTC Holds the Line at $115K

by admin September 16, 2025

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin BTC$115,432.18 traded just above $115k in Asia Tuesday morning, slipping slightly after a strong start to the week.

The modest pullback followed a run of inflows into U.S. spot ETFs and lingering optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week. The moves left traders divided: is this recovery built on fragile foundations, or is crypto firmly back on track after last week’s CPI-driven jitters?

That debate is playing out across research desks. Glassnode’s weekly pulse emphasizes fragility. While ETF inflows surged nearly 200% last week and futures open interest jumped, the underlying spot market looks weak.

Buying conviction remains shallow, Glassnode writes, funding rates have softened, and profit-taking is on the rise with more than 92% of supply in profit.

Options traders have also scaled back downside hedges, pushing volatility spreads lower, which Glassnode warns leaves the market exposed if risk returns. The core message: ETFs and futures are supporting the rally, but without stronger spot flows, BTC remains vulnerable.

QCP takes the other side.

The Singapore-based desk says crypto is “back on track” after CPI confirmed tariff-led inflation without major surprises. They highlight five consecutive days of sizeable BTC ETF inflows, ETH’s biggest inflow in two weeks, and strength in XRP and SOL even after ETF delays.

Traders, they argue, are interpreting regulatory postponements as inevitability rather than rejection. With the Altcoin Season Index at a 90-day high, QCP sees BTC consolidation above $115k as the launchpad for rotation into higher-beta assets.

The divide underscores how Bitcoin’s current range near $115k–$116k is a battleground. Glassnode calls it fragile optimism; QCP calls it momentum. Which side is right may depend on whether ETF inflows keep offsetting profit-taking in the weeks ahead.

(CoinDesk)

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin is consolidating near the $115,000 level as traders square positions ahead of expected U.S. Fed policy moves; institutional demand via spot Bitcoin ETFs is supporting upside

ETH: ETH is trading near $4500 in a key resistance band; gains are being helped by renewed institutional demand, tightening supply (exchange outflows), and positive technical setups.

Gold: Gold continues to hold near record highs, underpinned by expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, inflation risk, and investor demand for safe havens; gains tempered somewhat by profit‑taking and a firmer U.S. dollar

Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 topped 45,000 for the first time Monday, leading Asia-Pacific gains as upbeat U.S.-China trade talks and a TikTok divestment framework lifted sentiment.

S&P 500: The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to close above 6,600 for the first time on Monday as upbeat U.S.-China trade talks and anticipation of a Fed meeting lifted stocks.

Elsewhere in Crypto

Coinbase App Store ranking suggests retail still on sidelines despite crypto rally (The Block)
Robinhood Expands Private Equity Token Push With New Venture Capital Fund (CoinDesk)
Strategy Adds $60 Million to Bitcoin Treasury in Smallest Buy in a Month (Decrypt)

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September 16, 2025 0 comments

Crypto Trends

Bitcoin (BTC) Mining Profitability Fell in August, Jefferies Says

by admin September 15, 2025

Bitcoin BTC$115,463.37 mining profitability declined 5% last month primarily becuase of an increase in the network hashrate, investment bank Jefferies said in a research report Sunday.

“A hypothetical one EH/s fleet of BTC miners would have generated ~$55k/day in revenue during August, vs ~$58k/day in July and ~$44k a year ago,” wrote analysts led by Jonathan Petersen.

The hashrate refers to the total combined computational power used to mine and process transactions on a proof-of-work blockchain, and is a proxy for competition in the industry and mining difficulty. It is measured in exahashes per second (EH/s).

U.S.-listed mining companies mined 3,573 bitcoin in August versus 3,598 in July, the report noted, and these miners accounted for 26% of the Bitcoin network last month, unchanged from July.

MARA Holdings (MARA) mined the most bitcoin of the group, with 705,703 tokens, followed by IREN (IREN), Jefferies said.

MARA’s energized hashrate is still the largest of the group, at 59.4 EH/s, with CleanSpark (CLSK) second with 50 EH/s, the report added.

Read more: Bitcoin Network Hashrate Returned to All-Time Highs in August: JPMorgan

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September 15, 2025 0 comments

GameFi Guides

Strategy adds $60m in Bitcoin as holdings near 639k BTC

by admin September 15, 2025

Strategy’s latest SEC filing reveals a $60.2 million purchase of 525 BTC, adding to a colossal hoard that now stands just shy of 639,000 BTC and cementing its unparalleled position in the market as the largest corporate holder of the original crypto.

Summary

Strategy bought 525 BTC for $60.2 million, lifting holdings to 638,985 BTC.
The purchase was funded through sales of perpetual preferred stock.

According to a Form 8-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday, the Tysons Corner, Virginia-based company acquired the Bitcoin (BTC) between September 8 and September 14, paying an average of $114,562 per BTC.

Strategy said the purchase was not funded by operational earnings but rather by the execution of its capital markets strategy, specifically utilizing net proceeds from the sale of three distinct classes of its perpetual preferred stock.

The capital markets engine fueling a Bitcoin juggernaut

Per the filing, the three classes of shares Strategy sold to fund its latest Bitcoin acquisition include its Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock (STRF), Series A Perpetual Strike Preferred Stock (STRK), and Series A Perpetual Stride Preferred Stock (STRD).

These securities, each with different dividend profiles and risk structures, have become the backbone of Strategy’s capital markets playbook as it pushes deeper into Bitcoin exposure. Just last week, the company tapped the same programs to buy 1,955 BTC for $217.4 million, underscoring how quickly the company can convert capital raises into on-chain accumulation.

With the latest transaction, Strategy now holds 638,985 BTC, acquired at a cumulative cost of $47.23 billion, or $73,913 per BTC. At current market prices, the stash is valued at roughly $73.4 billion, leaving the firm with more than $26 billion in paper gains and cementing its role as the undisputed corporate heavyweight in the digital asset.

That scale is unmatched. According to BitcoinTreasuries.net, the next largest holder among public companies is Marathon Digital, with 52,477 BTC. Other names in the top ten include Tether-backed Twenty One with 43,514 BTC, Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company with 30,021 BTC, and exchange operator Bullish with 24,000 BTC.

Metaplanet, Riot Platforms, Trump Media & Technology Group, CleanSpark, and Coinbase round out the group, each holding between 11,000 and 20,000 BTC. Together, the nine companies outside Strategy account for about 229,000 BTC, barely a third of Strategy’s position.

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September 15, 2025 0 comments

Crypto Trends

BTC Cohorts Return to Net Selling as Market Continues to Consolidate

by admin September 15, 2025

Glassnode data shows that all wallet cohorts have returned to distribution mode, with a net selling of bitcoin, according to the Accumulation Trend Score breakdown by wallet cohort.

This metric disaggregates the Accumulation Trend Score to show the relative behavior of different groups of wallet. It measures the strength of accumulation for each balance size based on both the entities’ size and the volume of coins acquired over the past 15 days. (For more details on the methodology, see this Academy entry.)

A value closer to 1 signals accumulation by that cohort.
A value closer to 0 signals distribution.

Exchanges, miners and other similar entities are excluded from the calculation.

Currently, all cohorts, from wallets holding less than one bitcoin to those holding more than 10,000, are net sellers. This follows last week’s rally, when some whales — most notably the 10-100 BTC and 1,000-10,000 BTC cohorts were buying. They have since flipped back to selling.

Bitcoin was recently hovering near $117,000 after Asia’s trading session pushed it up from $115,000 dollars over the weekend. Over the past three months, Asia has consistently driven bitcoin roughly 10 percent higher, according to Velo data. In contrast, the European trading session has been marked by pullbacks, which has been seen on Monday so far. In addition, bitcoin is down more than 10% in the EU market over the past three months.

Overall, the market remains in consolidation, a trend likely to persist through September. On current data, the $107,000 marked at the start of September still appears to be the most probable bottom.

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September 15, 2025 0 comments

Crypto Trends

What’s Next for BTC, ETH as Downside Fears Ease Significantly Ahead of Fed Rate Cut?

by admin September 15, 2025

Fears of a downside for bitcoin BTC$116,264.09 and ether (ETH) have eased substantially, according to the latest options market data. However, the pace of the next upward move in these cryptocurrencies will largely hinge on the magnitude of the anticipated Fed rate cut scheduled for Sept. 17.

BTC’s seven-day call/put skew, which measures how implied volatility is distributed across calls versus puts expiring in a week, has recovered to nearly zero from the bearish 4% a week ago, according to data source Amberdata.

The 30- and 60-day option skews, though still slightly negative, have rebounded from last week’s lows, signaling a notable easing of downside fears. Ether’s options skew is exhibiting a similar pattern at the time of writing.

The skew shows the market’s directional bias, or the extent to which traders are more concerned about prices rising or falling. A positive skew suggests a bias towards calls or bullish option plays, while a negative reading indicates relatively higher demand for put options or downside protection.

The reset in options comes as bitcoin and ether prices see a renewed upswing in the lead-up to Wednesday’s Fed rate decision, where the central bank is widely expected to cut rates and lay the groundwork for additional easing over the coming months. BTC has gained over 4% to over $116,000 in seven days, with ether rising nearly 8% to $4,650, according to CoinDesk data.

What happens next largely depends on the size of the impending Fed rate cut. According to CME’s Fed funds futures, traders have priced in over 90% probability that the central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4%-4.25%. But there is also a slight possibility of a jumbo 50 bps move.

BTC could go berserk in case the Fed delivers the surprise 50 bps move.

“A surprise 50 bps rate cut would be a massive +gamma BUY signal for ETH, SOL and BTC,” Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, said in an email. “Gold will go absolutely nuts as well.”

Note that the Deribit-listed SOL options already exhibit a strong bullish sentiment, with calls trading at 4-5 volatility premium to puts.

Magadini explained that if the decision comes in line with expectations for a 25 bps cut, then a continued calm “grind higher” for BTC looks likely. ETH, meanwhile, may take another week or so to retest all-time highs and convincingly trade above $5,000, he added.

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September 15, 2025 0 comments

Crypto Trends

BTC Price Pulls Back, PENGU Open Interest Surges

by admin September 14, 2025

Bitcoin BTC$115,696.27 pulled back from overnight highs above $116,000 to under $115,000 as the Dollar Index (DXY) remains steady despite expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut.

Analysts remained optimistic saying they expect new lifetime highs in BTC and outsized gains in select few tokens, such as HYPE, SOL and ENA.

Focus has already shifted to smaller names. Tokens such as MYX, HASH, PENGU, PUMP and MNT have carved out price gains in excess of 10% this week.

“The CPI + jobs combo created a classic “good news/bad data” trade: inflation prints higher, but weaker labor data preserves the easing narrative, a net positive for crypto in the near term,” Timothy Misir, head of research, BRN said in an email.

Derivatives Positioning

Open interest in futures tied to the top 10 cryptocurrencies increased 3%-5% in the past 24 hours as strengthening expectations of Fed rate cuts prompt traders to take more risk.
Still, the market does not appear overheated, with annualized perpetual funding rates for major coins continuing to hover around 10%. Positive funding rates indicate a bullish bias among traders. Extremely high values typically signal market froth.
OI in PENGU, one of the best-performing tokens of the past seven days, hit a record high 7.78 billion coins, validating the price rise. Funding rates for the coin are slightly elevated at around 15%.
Smaller tokens, like SKY and PYTH, have deeply negative funding rates, a sign of bias towards bearish, short positions.
CME’s bitcoin futures are finally seeing an uptick in OI, ending a multiweek decline while ether OI has pulled back to a one-month low of 1.78 million ETH. These diverging trends could be a sign of renewed trader focus on BTC. Options OI in BTC and ETH remains elevated at multimonth highs.
On Deribit, BTC and ETH options continue to show a bias toward puts up to the December expiry, despite traders pricing roughly five U.S. interest-rate cuts by July next year.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

One of the founders of Thorchain, a decentralized network that allows users to send assets across blockchains, was hacked this week after being duped by a deepfake video call on Zoom.
“Ok so this attack finally manifested itself. Had an old metamask cleaned out,” JPThor wrote on X.
Peckshield noted that $1.2 million was stolen from a Thorchain user, with ZachXBT adding that the perpetrator is linked to North Korean hackers.
Thorchain emerged as one of North Korea’s most popular laundering tools earlier this year; researchers estimated that 80% of the proceeds from a $1.4 billion hack on Bybit had been siphoned through Thorchain and protocols like Vultisig.
The thorchain token (RUNE) is trading around $1.28, having lost 14% of its value in the past month and more than 90% since hitting its March 2024 high of $12.95.
The hack involved a mixture of social engineering and phishing, two techniques that contributed to the $2.5 billion stolen by hackers in the first half of 2025.

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September 14, 2025 0 comments

NFT Gaming

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction for September 13

by admin September 13, 2025

There are no reversal signals so far today, according to CoinStats.

BTC chart by CoinStats

BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has gone up by 0.62% since yesterday.

Image by TradingView

On the hourly chart, the rate of BTC is neither bullish nor bearish as it is far from the support and resistance levels. In this case, any sharp moves are unlikely to happen by tomorrow.

Image by TradingView

On the bigger time frame, the price of the main crypto is within yesterday’s bar, which means neither side has enough energy for a further move.

Bitcoin Sharks Quietly Add 65,000 BTC in Major Accumulation Spree

by admin September 13, 2025

Bitcoin wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC added 65,000 BTC to their reserves in just one week, according to new data from CryptoQuant. The surge highlights renewed demand from so-called “sharks” as the asset recovers from two-month lows.

Sharks drive accumulation

CryptoQuant’s latest report revealed that these mid-sized addresses now hold a record 3.65 million BTC. XWIN Research Japan, a CryptoQuant contributor, noted that the buying spree occurred even with spot prices hovering around $112,000, underscoring a growing divergence between short-term volatility and deeper structural demand.

Bitcoin UTXO Value Bands. Source: CryptoQuant

Short-term holders back in profit

While conviction buyers moved quickly, speculative traders were slower to react. Short-term holders, those clinging to coins for six months or less, finally crawled back into profit last Friday. CryptoQuant data shows their Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) flipped positive after nearly a month of bleeding coins on-chain at a loss, a reminder of how fragile retail conviction can be when volatility bites.

BTC Short Term Holder. Source: CryptoQuant

The takeaway

While small traders waver, mid-sized wallets have been quietly stacking 65,000 BTC in a week—proof that structural demand isn’t just alive, it’s flexing.

BTC Long-Term Holder. Source: CryptoQuant

Long-term holders may still be sitting on their hands, but the flow of coins tells a different story: conviction capital is drowning out retail noise, and that imbalance could fuel Bitcoin’s next decisive leg higher.

Also Read: Bitcoin ETF Boom Hits A Wall As TradFi Lose Appetite

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September 13, 2025 0 comments

Crypto Trends

Bitcoin Sharks Add 65K BTC In 7 Days: Supply Squeeze Setup Strengthens

by admin September 13, 2025

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin is navigating a volatile phase where bulls are struggling to drive the price higher, yet bears have also failed to push BTC below the $110,000 mark. This tight range signals a standoff, but beneath the surface, the market appears to be shifting into a new phase. For the first time in months, Ethereum and several altcoins are showing relative strength against Bitcoin, raising questions about capital rotation and changing market dynamics.

Fresh data from CryptoQuant sheds light on the divergence between short-term traders and larger conviction-driven buyers. According to their report, addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC—often referred to as “sharks”—have added a staggering 65,000 BTC in just seven days. This aggressive accumulation has lifted their total holdings to a record 3.65 million BTC.

What makes this development notable is that it has occurred even as spot prices hovered near $112,000. While retail-driven volatility has kept price action choppy, structural demand from larger buyers remains strong.

The disconnect suggests that long-term players are preparing for the next leg of the cycle, absorbing supply while short-term traders hesitate. In this environment, Bitcoin’s resilience above $110K underscores its strength despite ongoing market turbulence.

Bitcoin Onchain Data Points To Supply Squeeze

According to a report from XWIN Finance shared by CryptoQuant, two core onchain datasets confirm that Bitcoin’s current market behavior is driven by deep structural demand rather than short-term speculation. These indicators—Long-Term Holder (LTH) Net Position Change and Exchange Netflow—highlight a steady absorption of supply, setting the stage for potential upward pressure on price.

The LTH Net Position Change, which tracks 30-day balance shifts among experienced holders, has turned strongly positive. These green spikes suggest that long-term players are actively accumulating Bitcoin rather than distributing it. Historically, such accumulation phases often precede major bull runs, as coins move into “strong hands” less likely to sell during short-term volatility. This transition of supply into longer-term storage reduces available liquidity, tightening conditions for future rallies.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Net Position Change | Source: CryptoQuant

Exchange Netflow data provides another layer of evidence. Net outflows—BTC being withdrawn from exchanges—have dominated in recent weeks. This indicates that investors prefer cold storage over keeping assets liquid for immediate trading. Combined with LTH absorption, this confirms that recent shark buying is not speculative churn but actual supply removal from circulation.

The alignment of shark accumulation, LTH buying, and sustained exchange outflows builds the conditions for a potential supply squeeze. While short-term corrections remain possible if leverage in derivatives overheats, the structural picture favors higher prices as soon as demand accelerates. Beneath the current volatility, the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next major leg higher appears to be quietly forming.

Price Analysis: Quiet Consolidation

Bitcoin is trading at $115,019 after a steady recovery from early September lows near $110,000. The daily chart shows BTC building momentum as it pushes into a key resistance zone. The 50-day SMA at $114,562 has been reclaimed, and the 100-day SMA at $112,323 is now acting as solid support, reinforcing the bullish setup. The 200-day SMA at $102,202 continues to anchor the long-term trend, confirming that Bitcoin remains structurally healthy despite recent volatility.

BTC consolidates in a range | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

The next challenge lies at $116,000–$118,000, a resistance area that has capped rallies in recent weeks. A successful breakout and close above this zone could clear the path toward the major barrier at $123,217, which remains the cycle’s key level to watch.

On the downside, immediate support is established near $114,000, followed by stronger backing around $112,000. As long as BTC holds these levels, buyers are likely to maintain control. A breakdown below $112,000, however, could shift momentum back in favor of sellers and potentially bring $110,000 back into focus.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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September 13, 2025 0 comments

NFT Gaming

Crypto Market Prediction: XRP to Try $5 Jump, Ethereum (ETH) Begins $5,000 Journey, Bitcoin (BTC) to Stop Before $115,000?

by admin September 13, 2025

The market is certainly getting pressured by bears, as we covered in our previous crypto market prediction. They overtook bulls’ attempts to push assets to a recovery rally, but things remain at a pivotal point: Bitcoin is holding above its nearest support with weakening momentum, Ethereum continues to struggle with sustaining bids above key resistance zones as liquidity thins, and XRP is facing sharper downside risk given its inability to break the local trendline.

XRP pressured by trendline

The result of XRP’s latest test of a critical resistance level may determine the direction of its next significant move. XRP is currently battling a declining trendline that has repelled multiple rallies since late July, with the price hovering around $3.06. The aggressive target of $5 could once again be on the table, if a confirmed breakout here opens the door to a more extensive bullish expansion.

After falling below $2.80, XRP has been gradually hitting higher lows on the daily chart, demonstrating the tenacity of buyers at important support zones. Deeper corrections are kept at bay by the 200-day EMA around $2.55, and the 50-day EMA around $2.94, which remain strong backstops.

XRP/USDT Chart by TradingView

With the help of growing trading volume (more than 66 million trades per day), and a marginally strengthening RSI at 57, which indicates that the market is not yet in overbought territory, momentum is gradually moving upward. The crucial conflict is taking place between $3.00 and $3.20.

The trajectory toward $3.50, and eventually $5.00, becomes more feasible if bulls are able to break above this range. It would take both technical confirmation and consistent buying pressure — possibly from institutional players or rekindled consumer interest in altcoins — for such a move to occur. On the other hand, another pullback would probably occur if the current resistance is not overcome.

A decline below these levels would expose XRP to a more severe correction toward $2.55. The key support levels are $2.90 and $2.79. XRP is currently at a critical juncture. It will be clear from the upcoming trading sessions whether it breaks free and moves toward a $5 target or keeps consolidating under resistance. It is important for investors to anticipate increased volatility as the market tests these crucial levels.

Ethereum can regain it

Ethereum is displaying fresh strength as it approaches the crucial $5,000 threshold, which has not been reached since the previous cycle’s highs. With its strong uptrend and current price of $4,561, ETH appears to be poised for a sustained push toward new heights.

Ethereum’s tenacity is demonstrated by the daily chart. With strong momentum, ETH has now broken higher after consolidating in $4,200-$4,400 territory. In order to maintain ETH’s bullish structure, the 50-day EMA ($4,209) remains a dynamic support, and the 100-day EMA ($3,682) and 200-day EMA ($3,249) stay firmly below. Moving averages in alignment support the strength of the trend and indicate that dips are being aggressively bought.

Bitcoin breaks in

Although Bitcoin is now trading at $115,207, there are indications that the rally may stall before hitting the resistance level of $115,000-$116,000. Even though Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience in recent weeks, it has not gained the kind of traction required to advance toward the psychological level of $120,000.

This slowdown is evident in the daily chart. Bitcoin has been consistently under selling pressure as it has attempted to recover above $116,000. The 100-day EMA at $112,285, and the 50-day EMA at $114551, continue to offer support, but the absence of follow-through purchases suggests that traders are hesitating.

In the short term, Bitcoin has some stability because the 200-day EMA at $111,035 is still functioning as a deeper support level. This caution is reinforced by volume trends. Volume has decreased in recent trading sessions, indicating that buyers are running out of options, and that significant institutional inflows have not yet resumed.