Bitcoin’s chart structure is causing concern for veteran trader Peter Brandt as the legendary trader thinks it could be repeating the same price behavior that happened before the 2021 crash.
In a new post on X, Brandt shared a weekly Bitcoin chart that shows a sideways consolidation zone near recent highs. Something similar happened in late 2021, just before Bitcoin lost over 50% of its value.
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If you look at the yellow zones drawn over both patterns, you can see a bearish setup. Back in 2021, Bitcoin was trading at over $60,000 for a few weeks, but then it suddenly dropped into a deep bear market. Brandt’s chart suggests that the current consolidation, just above $104,000, might follow a similar path.
His post got people talking. One user said that Bitcoin’s fundamentals are stronger now than in 2021 and that there’s “no reason to worry” from a technical standpoint. Brandt didn’t see it that way. The fundamentals are usually clearest at the top end and darkest at the bottom, says trading veteran.
But mining?
Another user pointed out that mining costs are a safety net, saying that Bitcoin’s current price sits much closer to its average production cost than it did in 2021, which could limit the risk of a major drop.
But Brandt disagreed, saying that production costs don’t matter much when it comes to commodities. He thinks that no matter how profitable it is, producers keep supplying the market with things like Bitcoin, gold, or agricultural products, and markets don’t care about cost-based floors.
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Right now, Bitcoin is still trading within a pretty tight range, and traders are divided between expecting a breakout or a breakdown. Brandt’s warning goes against the usual optimistic outlook and shows that technical history might still be more important than the current market feeling.