Did you know the NFL playoffs actually start in September? Though they’ll be playing out the rest of the 2025 season regardless of what happens in Week 3, 10 teams are essentially playing to keep their hopes of advancing to the real postseason and winning Super Bowl LX alive this weekend.
History tells us that starting 0-2 is a damper on your chances of making it to the playoffs, but beginning the season 0-3 is closer to a death knell. Since 2002 — if we treat the seventh-best team in each conference as a playoff qualifier before the NFL moved to the 14-team postseason format in 2020 — 13.3% of teams that started 0-2 overcame their slow starts and made the postseason. Three squads — the Broncos, Rams and Ravens — did so a year ago.
Dropping to 0-3? Good luck. Since 2002, just three of the 96 teams that opened the season with three straight losses have (or would have) advanced. Two of them are Mike Tomlin-coached Steelers teams that would have snuck into the playoffs as No. 7 seeds in 2013 and 2019. The other is the 2018 Texans, who rolled off a nine-game winning streak after their ugly stretch in September.
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That’s a 3.1% success rate. And though the addition of a 17th game in 2021 gives these teams extra runway to overcome their starts, the reality is that 0-3 usually tells us what we need to know. If you can’t win one of those first three games, you probably don’t have the talent to win nine or 10 of the ensuing 14, either.
So, with 10 teams sitting at 0-2 and fighting to keep their postseason hopes alive this weekend, let’s break down where they stand and their chances of fixing things in the weeks to come. I’ll begin with the team I think has the best chance of righting the ship and getting back into the playoff picture, which probably shouldn’t be a surprise. (I included chances to make the playoffs via ESPN’s Football Power Index.)
Jump to an 0-2 team:
CAR | CHI | CLE | HOU | KC
MIA | NO | NYG | NYJ | TEN
Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 51.8%
Well, you probably figured they would be No. 1. We could obviously talk about the Chiefs and their 0-2 start for an entire column, but there are nine other teams to hit before we finish up, so I’m going to give you the express version.
Though most of the conversation has revolved around a disappointing offense, the Chiefs look even more disjointed on defense right now. Through two games, they rank 23rd in EPA per play allowed and 26th in QBR. Steve Spagnuolo is blitzing at the third-highest rate in the league, but his pressures are getting home at only the 23rd-highest rate. Blitzes that don’t generate pressure are obviously a disaster; they turn the average quarterback into Josh Allen in terms of QBR.
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The Chiefs are down safety Justin Reid from last year’s secondary, and free agent addition Kristian Fulton was limited to 15 snaps against the Chargers before leaving the loss to the Eagles after just two snaps with an ankle injury. The spine of the defense has been tilting at windmills with the Chiefs allowing a whopping 11.5 yards per play-action dropback. Only the Bills have been worse, but they have faced just five play-action attempts in 2025 (Kansas City has seen 15).
Offensively, the most realistic way to describe the Chiefs’ problems is a complete and utter lack of anything to hang their hat on. Good offenses have something to fall back on as their core strength. The Ravens can run the ball, so everything builds off that. The Bills have a superhero at quarterback, and that influences how teams play them in coverage. The early Patrick Mahomes teams had the fastest wideout in the league on one side (Tyreek Hill) and a physical force with a sixth sense for finding space on the other (Travis Kelce), forcing defenses to make a compromising decision between man and zone coverages.
Here are the major issues that need to be fixed:
The designed run game is a mess. The Chiefs are 24th in EPA per attempt on designed runs; Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco have a league-average success rate, but there’s virtually no juice or explosiveness coming from that part of the offense. The Chiefs’ longest carry on 28 attempts has gone for 11 yards. A rushing game that’s either average or subpar isn’t going to move the needle or scare opposing defenses.
There aren’t many explosive plays in the passing game, either. Mahomes is attempting more deep passes than he has in recent years, but he has gone 3-of-8 for 136 yards on those throws. Some of those attempts have been 50-50 balls, but Mahomes badly missed an open Tyquan Thornton on a double move for what should have been a 75-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Eagles.
The Chiefs were tied with the Patriots at the bottom of the deep completion rankings over the past two seasons, hitting on just 29 deep pass attempts. Mahomes’ 53.1 QBR on those throws was 31st in the league. We know Mahomes has the physical ability to make those passes, but he has been one of the league’s least impactful deep throwers since the start of 2023. That wasn’t a problem when the Chiefs were wildly successful underneath, but that also hasn’t been the case in 2025.
They’re not breaking the league on third down. Without the big plays downfield, the Chiefs have survived in recent years by tormenting defenses on third down. Between 2022 and 2024, the Chiefs converted nearly 47% of third downs, trailing only the Bills for the best rate in the NFL. They were the ninth-best offense by EPA per play on first and second down before leading the league there on third down.
This year, Kansas City is 26th in third-down conversion percentage (34.6%). That’s obviously a small sample — we’re talking about only 26 third-down tries — but it’s an indicator of just how dependent the Chiefs have been on those conversions to sustain their offense. If you’re not hitting big plays on the ground or in the air, and you’re not getting short fields from a defense that hasn’t forced any turnovers, you need to matriculate your way down the field and repeatedly pick up third downs to score. The Chiefs need to be among the best third-down offenses in the league for this style to work. They aren’t right now.
0:35
Why Tyquan Thornton is not worth rostering, even after productive Week 2
Mike Clay explains why Tyquan Thornton is not worth rostering, except in 16-team leagues.
They’re not creating mismatches with their personnel groupings. One of the other ways the Chiefs thrived after trading away Hill was leaning into more 12 and 13 personnel, surrounding Kelce with Noah Gray and other tight ends. Those groupings force some teams to play their base defenses (with four defensive backs on the field) or try to defend bigger, more physical players with cornerbacks and safeties. Both of those have been wins for the Chiefs, who loved seeing Kelce matched up against a slow linebacker or an undersized cornerback for the past decade.
There might not be much juice left to squeeze from that particular solution, especially with Kelce turning 36 in a few weeks. The Chiefs have posted a 35% success rate in 12 or 13 personnel this season, down from 50% a season ago. Again, we’re talking about a small sample of 40 plays, but the Chiefs have been significantly more effective working out of 11 personnel (48% success rate) even without Rashee Rice (suspension) and Xavier Worthy (shoulder injury) for the majority of the season.
When the Chiefs don’t have any of those things going, there’s one element that sustains them on offense: Mahomes’ scrambles. That was apparent in the first half against the Eagles, when it seemed like the entire offense was built on him jumping at the first sign of an open running lane. In Week 2, Mahomes scrambled for 66 yards, his second-highest total as a pro, with 60 of those yards coming before halftime.
Mahomes’ single-game record is 69 yards in that fateful 42-36 playoff win over the Bills; leaning more heavily on his legs has typically been a postseason tactic for the Chiefs. It’s not going to be a sustainable way to run this offense, but it might push defenses into playing more zone and less man against an underwhelming group of receivers. If Mahomes takes a hit while scrambling and has to leave the game or miss time, there will be no way back for this offense.
As it stands? The Chiefs aren’t hopeless, but they have to find something to build the offense around. Do they go under center and lean into more gap runs as opposed to the RPOs and shotgun rushing attack they’ve used with Mahomes? Can they use the threat of his scrambles to lean into their zone beaters? Will Mahomes start hitting enough deep throws to get safeties to sit in a different area code again? Or will we get four more weeks of this before Rice and Worthy are both presumably back and the Chiefs return to their 2024 offensive game plan?
The Chiefs have a tough schedule coming up with games against the Ravens, Lions, Commanders and Bills before their Week 10 bye. They’re not going to win many of those playing the way they have through two weeks. But I would still take them making the playoffs.
As for the Super Bowl? Well, three teams have begun 0-2 and won a Lombardi Trophy, although they changed significantly after their slow starts. The 1991 Cowboys were without Emmitt Smith, who held out for the first two games of the season before returning in Week 3. The 2001 Patriots gave Tom Brady his first career start in Week 3. And the 2007 Giants were an embarrassment on defense, allowing 80 points through the first two weeks and 17 more in the first half of Week 3 before launching a comeback victory over Washington and looking much more capable the rest of the way.
1:19
Woody: Chiefs ‘have nothing on offense that threatens any team’
Damien Woody calls out the Chiefs’ offensive deficiencies following a loss to the Eagles that saw them start 0-2 for the first time in Patrick Mahomes’ NFL career.
Do the Chiefs have that in them? I think so, but this isn’t a great team enduring some bad luck. It’s an average, maybe below-average, team that has faced two clearly better opponents. The Chiefs have to be somebody else to become themselves again.
Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 24.3%
Texans fans will undoubtedly find it frustrating that their team is 0-2. In addition to the understandable preseason expectations after winning the AFC South and wild-card games in back-to-back seasons, the Texans were only a couple of plays away from starting 2-0. Running back Dare Ogunbowale fumbled in the red zone on a potential winning touchdown drive in Week 1, handing the ball to the Rams for a 14-9 victory. On Monday night, they just needed an unblocked Henry To’oTo’o to sack or even slow down Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield on a fourth-and-10. Mayfield escaped, scrambled for a first down and drove the Bucs downfield for a touchdown and a one-point win.
It’s one thing to lose two close games to a pair of last season’s playoff teams. It’s another to play the way the Texans have in doing so. After devoting every resource this offseason to fixing their most obvious weaknesses, they look as if absolutely nothing has changed. Even with a new offensive coordinator and new players, the Texans still can’t sort out pressure and protect quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Nick Caserio rebuilt the line over the offseason, moving out Laremy Tunsil, Kenyon Green and Shaq Mason while importing an entire line’s worth of potential new starters: tackles Cam Robinson, Trent Brown and Aireontae Ersery, guards Laken Tomlinson and Ed Ingram, and center Jake Andrews. With the Texans holding onto several of their own younger linemen, there was suddenly meaningful competition at every spot up front in camp.
But the early returns on those moves aren’t promising. Brown was sent to the practice squad. Andrews injured his ankle in the opener and sat out the Bucs game. Robinson, signed to a one-year deal for $12 million, was benched after the Week 1 loss and didn’t play an offensive snap in Week 2. Tomlinson looked physically overwhelmed and was literally thrown to the ground by Greg Gaines before a sack Monday night. He wasn’t the only one, as Ogunbowale was run over by Bucs safety Tykee Smith on a slot blitz for another sack. It’s hard to play quarterback when your blockers are on the ground.
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Ersery has done his best, but it’s hard to imagine that the best practices for any second-round rookie would be starting at right tackle in Week 1 before suddenly moving to left tackle in Week 2. He has given up one sack and three quick pressures in two games, which is reasonable enough. But Tytus Howard wasn’t able to consistently handle Haason Reddick at right tackle, leaving the Texans with no reliable lineman around whom to build their pass protection.
There also are still structural issues. As Geoff Schwartz noted after Week 1, the Rams were able to overload the Texans and sack Stroud on a play in which he didn’t change the protection after he saw the Rams’ front. That was a problem that also popped up for the Texans on a key fourth down against the Chiefs in last season’s playoffs. Stroud either needs to be able to change that protection or have an answer to get the ball out quickly if he ends up being hot to one side, making the free rusher his responsibility.
The Bucs used some of Todd Bowles’ classic tricks to create structural pressure on Stroud. A late stem from the Buccaneers created an awkward block for Harrison Bryant, and Stroud was forced from the pocket by a slot pressure. Bowles created a sack with what’s colloquially known as a “coffee house” stunt, where a defender feigns as if he’s dropping back into coverage for a step or two, convincing linemen he isn’t part of the protection call, before then jumping back into the rush. It created arguably the easiest sack of Lavonte David’s career.
One of the ways to keep out of those exotic pressures, and prevent teams from pinning their ears back to go after Stroud, is running the football. But after the Texans struggled to do that in 2024, they haven’t been much better in 2025. Nick Chubb did hit a 25-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter to give the Texans a brief lead, but his previous 11 carries had gone for a total of 18 yards.
Through two weeks, only 29% of Houston’s designed runs on first and second down have been successful in terms of keeping the offense on schedule, which ranks 31st in the league, ahead of only the Cardinals. (If you’re a Cardinals fan wondering why the offense hasn’t lived up to expectations through two weeks, here’s your answer.) As a result, the Texans are again forcing Stroud to live in second-and-long and third-and-long. On 16 of the Texans’ 18 drives this season, Stroud has faced either a second or third down with nine or more yards to go. More than 48% of their second- and third-down snaps have come with 9-plus yards to the first, a figure topped only by the Bears.
The other concern for the Texans has to be that the AFC South suddenly looks more menacing than last year, when Houston went 5-1 in its division. The Colts are 2-0. The Jags were a fourth-down stop away from joining them. I’m certainly not counting out the Texans — they still have star defenders and Stroud. Maybe the offensive line gels in the weeks to come and the Texans find some sort of a running game.
Last season, though, the Texans were a league-average team that won 10 games because they faced a below-average schedule and went 6-3 in one-score games. That formula wasn’t going to be sustainable in 2025. And right now, while they’re probably unlucky to start 0-2, the Texans sure look a lot like the frustrating team we saw last season.
1:11
J.J. Watt breaks down Texans’ 0-2 start
J.J. Watt joins “The Pat McAfee Show” and weighs in on the Texans’ back-to-back losses to start the season.
Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 6.3%
Well, it was fun for a quarter or two. The Ben Johnson era came in with a bang Monday night in Week 1, as the Bears marched down the field for an opening-drive touchdown. Despite holding a win expectancy north of 91% as they entered the fourth quarter, though, the Bears blew their lead to the Vikings before they were unmercifully stomped by the Lions in Week 2. What felt like the dawning of a new era quickly faded into the same old Bears.
Of course, the Johnson hire was simultaneously about improving the team and fixing frustrating 2024 No. 1 pick Caleb Williams, who had burned through one coach and two coordinators in his first year with the organization. The goal for every team is to win as often as possible, but from a fan perspective, a successful debut season for Johnson was going to be more about getting Williams right than Chicago’s win-loss record at the end of the season.
So how is Williams doing? Two things can be true. On one hand, Williams isn’t “fixed” or a finished product like the one the Bears saw on the opening drive of the season. He has a 26.6% off-target rate this season, nearly double the league average (14.2%). Williams has the third-highest expected completion percentage (70.1%, per NFL Next Gen Stats) yet is completing only 61.5% of his throws; the only quarterback underproducing his expected completion percentage by a higher margin this season is Patrick Mahomes.
Williams has still been prone to the occasional bout of hero ball, particularly when the Bears have trailed and he has been under pressure. Some of the throws he produces in those moments are not compatible with surviving as an NFL quarterback, even if they don’t always lead to interceptions. Williams’ second-and-32 interception against the Lions was probably the right time to throw up a prayer, but it would be nice if that pass was at least within catchable range of a Bears wideout.
Simultaneously, this is a much better quarterback than the one we saw raging against the light last year. Williams has a 57.5 QBR, up more than 14 points from where he finished the 2024 season. Some of that is a product of his solid work as a scrambler, but even if we leave that out of the equation, Williams’ QBR on passes and sacks is still up 10 points.
1:04
Would perceptions of Caleb Williams be different if he was a rookie?
Louis Riddick likes the improvement he sees from Caleb Williams under Ben Johnson.
Johnson said after the Lions game that he saw week-to-week growth from Williams as a passer, and I’m inclined to agree. Williams is very clearly growing more comfortable working through his progressions within the pocket and getting to the right place with the football on a more consistent basis. He played with more anticipation and made accurate throws to help create several explosive plays, most notably on a well-thrown double-move to Rome Odunze for 37 yards. Ted Nguyen of The Athletic noted that Williams broke out of play structure only four times during the game, a step in the right direction for a QB who lived out of structure to his detriment in 2024.
Though Williams isn’t good enough right now to singlehandedly drag this team into games on a weekly basis, he’s not the problem with the Bears’ offense. What’s worrying is that the issues are more pervasive. All Johnson had to do Sunday was look across the field at a Lions team that gashed the Bears on the ground. One week earlier, the same offense had been completely inept running the football against the Packers, which shut down Jared Goff and the passing attack as a result.
Chicago’s run game has been virtually nonexistent through two weeks. D’Andre Swift & Co. are last in the league in EPA per designed run and 30th in success rate, ahead of only the Texans and Cardinals. It shouldn’t be a surprise that Swift isn’t a great fit for Johnson’s run game; remember that the Lions traded away Swift during Johnson’s time with the team and had much more success running the football with Jamaal Williams, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Swift has also been overwhelmed in pass protection. He’s a change-of-pace back being forced to serve as the lead back because the Bears paid him as such before the 2024 season, when he signed before Derrick Henry yet received the same average salary.
The Bears didn’t make any meaningful additions to their backfield this offseason, so seventh-round pick Kyle Monangai has been the primary backup to Swift. Don’t be shocked if the Bears go get someone who’s a more effective runner between the tackles and a sturdier pass blocker before the trade deadline. This offense isn’t going to thrive unless the run game is working.
The offense as a whole is still figuring things out. As Yahoo’s Matt Harmon noted, it takes time for motion-heavy offenses in new places to get settled without pre-snap penalties. The Bears are tied for the league lead with six false starts. The much-ballyhooed new interior offensive line is still gelling together, and when Johnson has had to keep things simple, teams have been able to exploit their weaknesses, like when the Vikings got a free rusher up the A-gap on Williams on the play when DJ Moore was hit hard downfield (a spectacular throw, for what it’s worth). The Bears aren’t some finished product on offense, but they’re better than public perception suggests right now.
I can’t say the same about the defense, which has looked awful for the past five quarters. Even with their pick-six of J.J. McCarthy and a great three quarters to start the season against the Vikings, Dennis Allen’s unit ranks 31st in EPA per play, ahead of only the Dolphins. At times against the Lions, the Bears looked like a junior varsity squad playing bigger, faster, virtually uncatchable varsity players.
1:04
How much will the Bears miss Jaylon Johnson?
“The Pat McAfee Show” crew reacts to the news about Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson being out indefinitely after sustaining a groin injury against the Lions.
The problems start in the secondary, where the Bears haven’t had slot corner Kyler Gordon all season. Top corner Jaylon Johnson sat out the opener because of a groin injury and then, per Johnson, sustained a new groin issue against the Lions. He’s out indefinitely, leaving the Bears down to Tyrique Stevenson, Nick McCloud and Nahshon Wright at cornerback. Stevenson and Wright both allowed perfect 158.3 passer ratings as the nearest defender in coverage against the Lions, and McCloud was a relative shutdown corner with his 132.9 mark. In an ideal world for Allen, Stevenson would be the third-best cornerback on the team and the guy who gets the most help of the bunch. In this version of the Bears’ defense, he’s nominally their best CB on paper.
It’s a vicious cycle. Because the secondary is in a shambles, Allen can’t play much man coverage, which was a goal for this defense heading into the season. And without any faith in his cornerbacks, the Bears can’t send extra rushers, with Chicago running the NFL’s fourth-lowest blitz rate. And because they can’t blitz, the Bears don’t get any pressure, with their 20.8% pressure rate good for 28th in the league. And if you don’t get pressure, life’s going to be much tougher on your defensive backs.
The fairest thing to say for the Bears as a whole is that they’re still very much figuring things out. The same is true for Johnson, whose game management in his debut was sorely lacking. He threw the challenge flag for a fumble that was never going to be overturned. Then, with the Bears trying to get the kickoff back to the Vikings before the two-minute warning, he didn’t instruct Cairo Santos to kick the ball out of bounds or even just a yard or two forward to immediately create a landing zone violation. Instead, he trusted Santos to boot the ball all the way through the end zone, which failed.
This is a work in progress, and it’s closer to the beginning of that process than the end.
Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 5.1%
It seems like the Dolphins have been through a season’s worth of conflicts in two weeks. Visibly disgruntled wide receiver? Players-only meeting? Blowout loss? Blown fourth-quarter lead against a division rival at home? The Dolphins have done it all. The most popular conversation surrounding Miami is whether wide receiver Tyreek Hill or coach Mike McDaniel will be the first to leave town.
I’m not sure getting rid of either makes sense, at least not right now. Hill is clearly frustrated, and the organization essentially choosing to forget when he asked out of the lineup and requested a trade at the end of last season couldn’t have done wonders for locker room morale. But this offense isn’t going to get better without Hill in the lineup. And although McDaniel is unlikely to return for another season at this rate, given owner Stephen Ross’ history of firing coaches, the Dolphins are almost surely going to be looking outside the building for their next hire — which they’d obviously do only in the offseason.
Do the Dolphins have any hope of turning things around? Week 2 suggests so. The offense was completely inept in the Week 1 loss to the Colts, but one week later, it scored 20 points on eight drives against the Patriots. Hill had a 109-yard game, including his first 40-plus-yard catch in over a year. The Dolphins came within a De’Von Achane footstep of scoring a touchdown to take the lead with 1:15 to go. It wasn’t exactly the 70-point stomping of the Broncos in 2023, but it was a major step in the right direction after a truly awful week.
That game against the Broncos might actually be another reason to be patient. Denver allowed 70 points after giving up 35 to a Sam Howell-led Commanders offense one week earlier. The Broncos looked like a historically bad defense in the making. What happened? They got better. Vance Joseph’s defense was 12th in EPA per play over the remainder of 2023 and then led the league by the same metric the following season. I’m not saying that sort of turnaround is necessarily in the cards for the Dolphins, but one disaster game and one mediocre one shouldn’t be enough to insist upon a cleanout.
The problem for the Dolphins, at least on offense, is that it’s tough to see how they can unlock a new level of play. We saw the best version of this offense in 2022 and 2023, when they had a Pro Bowl-caliber left tackle in Terron Armstead and a solid guard in Robert Hunt. Armstead retired, Hunt left for the Panthers, and the Dolphins haven’t invested heavily in replacements. Patrick Paul and Jonah Savaiinaea are still working things out on the left side, while right tackle Austin Jackson just went on injured reserve. Tua Tagovailoa’s blind side is being protected by former Bears reserve Larry Borom.
The 2023 Dolphins hit another level by dominating on the ground, something that hasn’t recurred since then. Miami is 31st in EPA per play on designed runs since the start of 2024, and although it was excellent on them in the opener against the Colts, the early deficit took the run game out of the picture. McDaniel has essentially turned Achane into an every-down back, which gets Miami’s most talented runner the ball — but it also puts a lot of wear and tear on the 5-foot-9, 191-pounder. McDaniel is widely regarded as one of the most creative and revered run scheme builders in the NFL, so this appears to be more of a talent issue up front than a schematic concern.
Even if the offense gets going, though, the defense looks bad on paper and hasn’t played out much better in practice. The hope was always that a deep front four, led by Chop Robinson, Zach Sieler, Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, would be able to cover for the secondary — which looks like GM Chris Grier simply forgot about the concept of defensive backs. When the Dolphins fleshed out their biggest weak spot by signing Jack Jones and Rasul Douglas in training camp and then playing them for meaningful snaps right out of the gate, it spoke to just how much of a mess cornerback was (and still is) for the Dolphins.
Unfortunately for coordinator Anthony Weaver, the pass rush hasn’t taken over games yet. The Dolphins rank 29th in pressure rate this season, ahead of only the 49ers, Panthers and Colts. They’ve done that with the NFL’s fourth-highest blitz rate, which seems incomprehensible and illogical given how limited they are at cornerback. It would be one thing if those blitzes were working, but Miami is 27th in opponent QBR when sending extra rushers this season.
1:20
Rich Eisen sounds off on Dolphins’ poor start
Rich Eisen rips into the Dolphins following their winless start to the NFL season.
After their ugly Week 1 loss, I said it was too early to rule the Dolphins out, considering how easy their schedule would be over the coming weeks. Well, one of those winnable games was at home against the Patriots, and the Dolphins just lost that one. Traveling to Western New York in September is a lot different from playing there in December or January, but the Dolphins now need to beat the Bills to save their season. If they lose to Buffalo — and follow that up with a loss to either the Jets or the Panthers over the two ensuing games — the wheels might come off entirely. Some might say they already have.
Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 3.7%
I wrote at length about Sunday’s dramatic loss to the Cowboys in my Monday column, so I won’t dwell on what we saw from Big Blue in Week 2. When I picked them before the season as one of the teams most likely to improve in 2025, I focused on a few factors that seemed likely to drive a more competent version of the Giants. Let’s check in on how those are faring through two weeks:
Better performance in the red zone. Last year’s Giants averaged just 3.8 points per red zone trip, becoming the only team in 2024 and just the third over the past five seasons to average fewer than four points per red zone possession. The 2020 and 2023 Jets were the only other teams to come up short of that four-point barrier. Does the turf suddenly go uphill at the 20-yard line in East Rutherford?
History tells us that teams that struggle that much in the red zone almost always get better inside the 20 the following year. Through two weeks, the Giants are proving to be the impetus for including “almost” in that prior sentence, averaging a league-low 2.7 points per red zone trip. They’ve notched just one touchdown on seven trips inside the 20, including a downright embarrassing sequence against the Commanders in Week 1 where the Giants failed to score on seven straight plays. Coach Brian Daboll simply shut down and decided to kick what could be the angriest field goal of the 2025 season.
There isn’t just one problem. The Giants aren’t a good conventional run team, so they rely heavily on bootlegs and quarterback movement to try to misdirect defenses. Those haven’t yielded open receivers. Malik Nabers is their best individual playmaker and the player most likely to win one-on-one in tight quarters, but while he was targeted three times inside the 20 in Week 1, the only completion came on a screen where none of the blockers arrived on time. Daboll is fluent in the quarterback run game from his time working with Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Daniel Jones, but he’s not going to run power with Russell Wilson.
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Could Jaxson Dart be the solution? He could help, though the one time he got to keep the ball Sunday produced a 3-yard loss on a failed zone read. Taking a longer view, this should get better with time and a larger sample. But I think it’s fair to wonder whether Daboll and coordinator Mike Kafka have any schematic answers. The Saquon Barkley-led 2022 offense was good for the seventh-best red zone touchdown rate, but the Giants fell to 31st there in 2023. Barkley is not coming through the door in North Jersey in Giants colors anytime soon, so New York will need to find something or someone it can lean on inside the 20.
A healthier year from left tackle Andrew Thomas. Outside of perhaps Nabers, there isn’t a more essential player on this roster than Thomas. The Giants are deep enough on the defensive line that they could lose one of their standouts and get by, but Thomas is arguably the only above-average pass protector on a unit that has been a perennial disappointment. As I wrote before the season, the Giants had the league’s 21st-best offense with Thomas on the field during Daboll’s past three years in New York; they had the 32nd offense when he was on the sidelines or inactive.
The Giants were hoping for a healthy season from Thomas after he missed most of 2024 with a Lisfranc injury, but he didn’t play during the preseason and hasn’t been able to suit up yet for the regular season. With Evan Neal a healthy scratch, the Giants first turned to James Hudson III, who struggled against the Commanders before melting down against the Cowboys. He committed four penalties in a four-play span before being benched.
Third-stringer Marcus Mbow didn’t actively set the offense back, but Giants left tackles have allowed 12 pressures this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. In an ideal world, the Giants could rely on Thomas as an anchor and give right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor more help. Instead, they have needed to help out their left tackles, and Eluemunor allowed six pressures in the loss to the Cowboys, four of which were what Next Gen Stats defines as quick pressures (when a player loses almost immediately after the snap).
Great defensive line play. The Giants posted the best sack rate of the 21st century through eight games in 2024, and though they faded in the second half, the arrival of Abdul Carter added another potentially elite player to their front four. If the Giants were going to control games, it was going to be through that defensive line winning up front.
Through two games, the line hasn’t dominated. The Giants are posting a 19.4% pressure rate when they don’t blitz, which ranks 26th in the league. They’re running the third-best sack-to-pressure rate in those situations, which hints at the finishing talent they have up front, but the Giants were 10th in pressure rate without blitzing through eight games a year ago.
They’ve also been abysmal against the run, ranking dead last in EPA per play against designed runs. Losing linebacker Micah McFadden in the opener (foot) and replacement Darius Muasau in the third quarter against the Cowboys (concussion) hasn’t helped, but this Dexter Lawrence-led front is supposed to physically overwhelm opposing offensive lines. So far, it hasn’t been able to stop the run whatsoever.
The Giants came within a 64-yard field goal of beating the Cowboys, which would have been a pleasant victory, but there’s nothing in their formula or underlying play right now suggesting they’re about to go on a run. That might change once Dart gets into the lineup, but until they start winning the line of scrimmage and get through a difficult slate of early-season opponents, I’m not sure the identity of the quarterback matters much.
0:43
Stephen A. is flabbergasted by Giants’ 14 penalties
Stephen A. Smith is shocked by the Giants’ undisciplined play leading to at least fourteen penalties in New York’s loss to Dallas.
Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 7.3%
Well, the good vibes around the Jets’ offense lasted exactly one week. Justin Fields posted the worst QBR of his career (1.1), going 3-of-11 for 27 yards with an interception before leaving Sunday’s game against the Bills with a concussion. The Jets ran the ball reasonably well for the second consecutive week, but they went 0-for-11 on third down, matching what they did against these same Bills from November 2023.
Though a few of those third downs were third-and-forever spots, the Jets were sloppier in Week 2 than they were against the Steelers in the opener. Fields (and Tyrod Taylor, who came in late to replace the injured starter) weren’t throwing with anticipation. Running back Breece Hall, who was very effective making defenders miss in Week 1, couldn’t pick up 3 yards on a throw to the flat. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson slipped after a catch and couldn’t grab extra yardage. The Jets missed contributions from players such as receiver Josh Reynolds, who was out with a hamstring injury.
This isn’t an offense built to play from behind. Fields hasn’t been a consistently effective dropback passer, and trailing takes the run game and the threat of play-action away from Tanner Engstrand’s offense. Wilson is the only reliable receiver in the offense. If the Jets go down double digits in the first half, as they did when the Bills scored 20 points, they will struggle to catch up. If they can stay close or take the lead, as they did against the Steelers, it will keep the playbook open for 60 minutes. That’s going to be a prerequisite for the Jets throughout the season.
Fields is already out for the Bucs game in Week 3, and when he will return is uncertain. And there’s obviously a conflict here. He has never finished a full season as a pro, missing time in each of his three years with the Bears because of injuries before spending much of 2024 on the bench in Pittsburgh. So the Jets need to protect Fields in their game plan. But the best version of their offense should include Fields on designed runs between the tackles, which invariably means a heavy hit rate. And then as a dropback passer, Fields has an astronomical 11.8% sack rate as a pro quarterback. Some of those sacks are extended plays where Fields is scrambling and can’t escape a defender, but he has taken too many hits in the pocket over the years.
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Some of the wrinkles the Jets tried in the first two weeks didn’t help. On the play where Fields reportedly suffered his concussion, the Jets got to the line and tried to quick-snap to catch the Bills off guard, leaving them in a simple protection look without any time to redeclare or reset the line. As a result, rookie tight end Mason Taylor was left one-on-one against edge rusher Joey Bosa, who easily won the mismatch and strip-sacked Fields. Those quick snaps worked for the Ravens in Week 1 against Buffalo, but Lamar Jackson is simply a much more dynamic and effective quarterback than Fields.
The more concerning thing might be that the Jets’ defense hasn’t bounced back from last season’s post-Robert Saleh firing swoon. It’s one thing for Josh Allen and the Bills to score 30, but the Steelers getting to 34 might end up being Pittsburgh’s highest-scoring game of the year. The Jets are 28th in EPA per play on defense through two games.
Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady did a good job of getting the Jets into uncomfortable positions. The Bills picked on third-year linebacker Marcelino McCrary-Ball, who has been playing the first regular snaps of his career when the Jets are in their base defense. Allen’s biggest pass of the game was a 32-yard crosser to Joshua Palmer, who lined up in the slot against Sauce Gardner, where the star cornerback is typically less comfortable.
Aaron Glenn unsurprisingly leaned more heavily into man coverage after majoring in it during his time as the Lions’ defensive coordinator. The Jets played man 50.6% of the time last season, but that went up to 61.8% in the opener before Glenn pared it back to 46.7% last week. The latter move was more about Allen than any sort of philosophy shift; the Bills’ QB torches man coverage with his arm and legs and led Buffalo to 48 points on the Lions a year ago. Gardner will do just fine in man, but it remains to be seen whether free agent signing Brandon Stephens — who got a curiously significant contract after a disappointing year with the Ravens — can do the same. He has allowed a 144.0 passer rating and two touchdowns through two games.
Nobody in the AFC East plays a particularly difficult schedule, and the Jets have games against the Dolphins, Cowboys, Panthers and Browns coming up. The Jets outplayed the Steelers and probably deserved to win that game. If they can keep Fields in the lineup and don’t fall too far behind, they’re going to be a frustrating out. Until the defense finds its way, though, the Jets won’t be able to get out to many early leads.
0:48
Why Greeny calls Jets’ loss ‘alarming’
Mike Greenberg explains why he’s concerned after the Jets’ Week 2 loss to the Bills.
Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 5.5%
At least it’s less depressing than it was this time last year! After Week 2 in 2024, the Panthers were benching Bryce Young for Andy Dalton, a sign that the organization had given up on its 2023 No. 1 pick after a little more than one season. The Panthers told everyone who would listen that they weren’t actually moving on from their QB of the future, and to their credit, Young came back later in the season and looked like a much better passer. And heading into 2025, there was a renewed optimism surrounding Young, who looked a lot more like the guy the Panthers were hoping to add when they traded a massive haul to the Bears to acquire him.
Well, two games into 2025, some of that optimism has already evaporated. Young ranks 29th in QBR; his 36.3 mark is about halfway between where Young stood at this time a year ago (7.2) and how he played during the second half of 2024 after his return from the bench (62.7). Young doesn’t look overmatched in the way we saw during that brutal 2024 start, but he simply hasn’t been good enough. He’s averaging just 5.4 yards per attempt without completing even 60% of his passes through two games.
The worst part has been turnovers. Young has thrown three picks through two games, all of which have been on ill-advised decisions. A fourth, maybe the worst interception thrown by any quarterback in a game all season, was a pick-six against the Jaguars in Week 1 that was mercifully called back because of a penalty. An offense that’s not efficient, turning the ball over and not generating many big plays isn’t very appealing.
And while Young hasn’t often had much help at receiver, Tetairoa McMillan looks as if he’s going to be very good. He made a really nice subtle catch in Week 2 on what ended up being a 40-yard catch-and-run from Young, taking in a pass that was a little low without stopping his stride and running through the Cardinals’ secondary for extra yardage. He has averaged just over 2 yards per route run through two games. Xavier Legette, on the other hand, has 8 yards on 75 routes, for a smooth 0.1 yards per route run. Only five wide receivers who ran 50 routes in their team’s first two games since 2007 have gotten off to a worse start.
0:55
Dopp: McMillan is low-end WR2 or high-end flex play in Week 3
Daniel Dopp shares why Tetairoa McMillan is a low-end WR2 or high-end flex play in Week 3 fantasy against the Falcons.
The line has been an issue. Yosh Nijman filled in at left tackle in the opener and gave up a league-high six quick quarterback pressures, most of which came at the hands of Josh Hines-Allen. Ikem Ekwonu was back from his appendectomy for Week 2, but he gave up four quick pressures in his first appearance of the season. (We’ve seen offensive linemen struggle to regain their form quickly after appendectomies, with Peter Skoronski’s rookie season as an example.)
Even worse, the Panthers lost two of their starting linemen, with Pro Bowl guard Robert Hunt going down because of a biceps injury that is likely to end his season, while center Austin Corbett hit injured reserve because of an MCL injury and is out indefinitely. In addition to fielding two backups in the middle of the line for the next couple of months, it’s worth noting that Ekwonu’s 2024 improvement came after the Panthers added a very good guard next door. I would be worried about the potential for regression there without Hunt in the lineup. This is a real problem for Young and the offense.
The Panthers also lost a key lineman early in 2024, but that was on the defensive side, where Derrick Brown went down in the opener and sat out the rest of the season. With Brown returning to the lineup and the addition of Tershawn Wharton in free agency, the hope was that a Panthers defense that was dire against the run might noticeably improve.
Not off to a great start. With Wharton limited to 18 snaps in the opener and sitting out Week 2 because of a hamstring injury, the Panthers have given up 188 rushing yards on designed runs through two games, ahead of only the Bills, who faced Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. They’re 17th by EPA per designed rush attempt after a solid day against the Cardinals, but Ejiro Evero’s defense almost singlehandedly revived Travis Etienne Jr.’s fantasy stock. Etienne went for 143 yards on 16 carries in Week 1, including a 71-yard run on split zone where new addition Tre’von Moehrig got caught up in flotsam and free safety Nick Scott couldn’t make a tackle as the last line of defense.
It’s just too easy to find a weak spot for this team on both sides of the football. Run the ball, and you’ll eventually get a missed tackle from someone like Scott or Christian Rozeboom. Don’t want to throw at Jaycee Horn? You can target the safeties or throw at Chau Smith-Wade. The Jags controlled the line by overwhelming Nijman, and if defenses are able to stop McMillan, I’m not sure anybody else in the passing game is going to be able to consistently win for Young against tight coverage.
It seems telling that FPI is willing to give the Panthers only a 5.5% shot of landing a playoff berth in the NFC South, where nobody has looked great in several years, let alone through two games of the 2025 season. This is Year 3 with Young and Evero, and it’s Year 2 with coach Dave Canales and GM Dan Morgan. We should be seeing signs of growth. But I’m not sure there have been many on the film or in the data through two games.
Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 3.6%
Titans fans hoping Cam Ward would be the latest top draft pick to propel a moribund team from the bottom of the standings into an immediate playoff berth are probably accepting that this isn’t the 2023 Texans or 2024 Commanders. Through two weeks, Ward is last in the NFL in QBR (19.8). He’s averaging 2.8 yards per dropback; of the 625 qualifying quarterbacks who started the first two games of their teams’ seasons going back through the 2007 season, Ward ranks 624th by that metric. Only Blaine Gabbert’s 2013 season (1.9 yards per dropback, somehow) was worse.
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Ranking 624th out of 625 is unquestionably not great, but I don’t think he has actually been anywhere near that bad. There’s no questioning his arm talent, and while there have been a few scattershot throws, you can pretty easily see why the Titans had no qualms about making him the first pick in this year’s draft. Ward is a fun improviser and shows nice touch on throws to the sideline, including the would-be completion to Elic Ayomanor that Brian Callahan neglected to challenge against the Broncos in Week 1, seemingly out of some confusion regarding the league’s catch rules.
Ward is averaging nearly 9 air yards per throw, so while his completion percentage (50.8%) is terrible, it’s at least partially mitigated by how often he is throwing downfield. He’s 5-of-24 on throws of 10 or more yards downfield, which obviously has to get better in the coming weeks if the Titans want to score more than one touchdown per game.
The big problem for Ward and the offense has been taking sacks. Every young quarterback seemingly needs to learn that running directly backward to escape pressure doesn’t work in the NFL unless you’re Lamar Jackson. Ward found that out in the fourth quarter against the Broncos, taking three sacks for double-digit yardage losses in the final 15 minutes alone. He didn’t take another one of those in the subsequent loss to the Rams, which is a positive sign.
With that being said, even on the plays in which Ward isn’t tunneling backward toward his end zone, pass protection has been a major problem. Playing the Broncos and Rams to start the season hasn’t helped, but the offensive line was supposed to be the backbone that propelled the offense forward in 2025. The Titans were moving JC Latham from left tackle to his natural position at right tackle. They spent big on Dan Moore Jr. at left tackle, added veteran guard Kevin Zeitler on the interior and welcomed back Lloyd Cushenberry III from a torn Achilles. With legendary offensive line coach Bill Callahan in his second season with the team, the Titans were supposed to be much better up front in 2025.
It hasn’t gone well so far. Moore, who gave up the most sacks in the NFL last season per the NFL Next Gen Stats, hasn’t looked any better in Tennessee than he did in Pittsburgh. He has given up three sacks and 12 pressures through two games, seven of which are of the quick pressure variety, which ties him for the most in the league. Latham gave up a sack and two pressures in the opener and then went down because of a hip injury; he was replaced by Olisaemeka Udoh in Week 1 and John Ojukwu in Week 2 against the Rams. Between the three of them, they’ve given up four sacks and 10 pressures in Ward’s first two games.
If you don’t trust your tackles, you can’t lean into play-action, which makes every quarterback’s life easier. Tennessee can try protecting with six or seven and helping the tackles out with chips, but that’s keeping receivers from getting into their routes and forces more attention on a group of receivers that might already be the least imposing in the NFL without the help. The Titans used a first-round pick on Latham and spent more than $20 million per year to sign Moore in free agency under the idea that they wouldn’t need to be worried about their tackles for years to come. The early returns aren’t promising.
I’ve been more enthused by the Titans’ defense, which has looked solid through three quarters in consecutive games before gassing out in the fourth. The Titans are 14th in EPA per play on defense through three quarters before falling to 28th in the final stanza, where the Broncos and Rams scored 20 of their 53 combined points.
Even with limited snaps for L’Jarius Sneed and a missing game from T’Vondre Sweat, the Titans have looked more cohesive in 2025. Jeffery Simmons has been the difference-maker the Titans need, leading the team with seven pressures, two of which produced turnovers. The new linebacker duo of Cody Barton and Cedric Gray has played well in coverage, with Barton producing a really impressive pick of Matthew Stafford last week, dropping all the way from the line of scrimmage into the flat to hand the Titans a short field.
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And the special teams, which was disastrously bad in 2023 and 2024, has made big plays. The Titans lead the league in special teams DVOA after ranking last in the same category a year ago. They recovered a muffed fumble by Marvin Mims Jr. in Week 1 that gave them a short field and set up what could have been a tying score, only for the offense to go backward. Chimere Dike earned them three points just before halftime that game when he returned a kickoff for 71 yards with six seconds left in the second quarter. Joey Slye is 8-for-8 on field goal attempts, including three from 50-plus yards. Good special teams will keep the Titans in games and could swing a close one or two later in the season.
All of those things help, but the focus in 2025 will obviously be on Ward and what he does in his first year under center. Callahan has to find ways to make his life easier and put less of a load on his young QB’s shoulders, especially in obvious passing situations. The Titans will face easier defenses in the weeks to come, though the Colts do lead the league in QBR after two weeks and the Texans and their brutally devastating set of edge rushers follow. There’s certainly something compelling here with Ward, but 2025 might be more about figuring out how to harness his talent than challenging for a postseason berth.
Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 5.1%
There are depressing bad teams and fun bad teams. The Saints, through two weeks, fall firmly into the latter category. Quarterback Spencer Rattler throwing the ball around 40 times per week? The Emory and Henry formation? Defensive coordinator Brandon Staley running out a defense with the highest sim pressure and creeper rate in the league? Linebacker Demario Davis thumping opposing run games the way he did in his mid-20s? The Saints have been an entertaining watch through two weeks.
A lot of these teams could make the case that they’re a play or two away from being 2-0. The Saints might be a play or two away from being a play or two away from being 2-0. Trailing 20-13 against the Cardinals in Week 1, Rattler hit tight end Juwan Johnson up the seam for what appeared to be a tying touchdown, only for the ball to come out on his way down. Last week against San Francisco, Rattler threw a pass behind wide receiver Chris Olave for what should have been a touchdown on the opening drive, which ended in a missed field goal attempt. The Saints extended two 49ers TD drives with third-down penalties, then failed to move the ball on two fourth-quarter drives while trailing by five points. It would be wrong to say the Saints came close to winning, but they were close to being close. And they did fun things while coming up just short.
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Coach Kellen Moore has the Saints playing at the fastest pace of any team by a considerable margin. Through two weeks, Rattler has thrown 80 passes and the Saints have two (Olave and Johnson) of the league’s 12 players with 20-plus targets. Leaning into tempo makes Rattler’s life easier in terms of seeing fewer exotic defensive looks and tiring out opposing pass rushes. He has been sacked on only 4.6% of his dropbacks this season, which is above league average. He also has not thrown an interception, though that’s not going to stick as long as Rattler is throwing into tight windows at one of the highest rates in the NFL.
Moore’s playcalling was weirdly polarized in the 49ers game. Before the final two drives of the game, when the Saints were essentially in their two-minute drill, 21 of the Saints’ 26 first-down snaps were runs. The Saints leaned heavily into the pass on second downs, with 18 of 25 snaps producing pass dropbacks. There’s nothing wrong with running on first down and throwing on second down, and some of those snaps are going to be RPOs in which Rattler is going to make a decision based on the defensive look. But it’s another quirky thing about what has been a unique offense.
Does all of that add up to a good offense? Not yet. Rattler is averaging 5.3 yards per attempt, which is 31st in the league. The Saints have done a good job limiting negative plays, but when we strip the interceptions and sacks out for everyone, just about everybody else is getting more out of their positive plays than the Saints. Rattler is 27th in EPA per snap excluding sacks and turnovers, right alongside the Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy.
Realistically, the Saints have too many weak spots where they’re either relying on unproven young players or journeymen who wouldn’t be playing on better teams. Up front, Kelvin Banks Jr. (left tackle), Taliese Fuaga (right tackle) and Dillon Radunz (left guard) gave up 10 quick pressures against the 49ers. Banks was one-on-one on nearly 90% of his dropbacks. That’s a lot to ask of a rookie in his second NFL game, even a first-round pick.
Another of the problems: The Saints can’t generate yards after the catch. By the NFL Next Gen Stats receiving model, just 32% of Saints catches have produced successful YAC versus expectation, the worst mark of any team in the NFL. The Saints are also one of just three teams that haven’t had a single play produce at least 20 yards after the catch this season. Some of that’s a product of their scheme, but the receiving model attempts to account for where players catch the ball and the speed of the players around them to estimate what a receiver “should” gain after making the catch. It’s tough to imagine that a team with guys like Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Alvin Kamara won’t do more in open space in the weeks to come.
Staley’s defense, meanwhile, is letting its freak flag fly. According to Next Gen Stats, the Saints are having defenders drop off the line of scrimmage a league-high 51.7% of the time; they’ve also paced the NFL in creepers and sim pressures (12.4%). It’s a necessary reality for a team that doesn’t have the talent to win by simply rushing its front four. Those pressure looks help the Saints define protections and create potential one-on-ones, but they also ask a lot of Staley’s linebackers (admittedly the best part of his defense). The play that decided Sunday’s loss started with six Saints at the line of scrimmage before Davis and Pete Werner dropped into coverage, only for Mac Jones to whiz a crosser past Werner’s ear to Jauan Jennings for a 42-yard touchdown.
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The secondary ranks 25th in EPA per play when the pass rush doesn’t get home. New Orleans has dealt with frustrating penalties from Kool-Aid McKinstry, who has had a rough start to the season, and Isaac Yiadom, who wasn’t able to contain Cardinals’ running back Trey Benson on a 52-yard run in the opener. As the Saints deal with more injuries throughout the season, they could be further exposed to replacement-level talent on the back half of their roster.
This isn’t going to be an easy season (or few seasons to come) in New Orleans. It would be a surprise if the Saints pulled out road victories over the Seahawks or Bills in the next two weeks. I don’t think anyone outside of Louisiana is expecting the Saints to start contending, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be entertaining along the way.
Chances of advancing to the postseason, via ESPN’s FPI: 5.4%
The path to an unexpected playoff berth for the Browns was always going to come through their defense, as it did in 2023 when Cleveland started five different quarterbacks and still made the postseason. Doing that without linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and cornerback Martin Emerson Jr., both of whom are out for the 2025 season, wasn’t going to be easy.
Through their first six quarters of football, it looked like Jim Schwartz’s unit was doing its best to relive 2023. After limiting the Bengals to 17 points in the opener, the Browns held the Ravens to 10 points in the first half Sunday. One week after Baltimore lit up Buffalo in a wild shootout, it picked up just four first downs and 81 net yards on seven possessions in that first half against Cleveland.
Then the bottom fell out. The Ravens racked up 24 points on offense in the second half and added a touchdown on a scoop-and-score. Starting two of their four second-half drives on Cleveland’s 5- and 36-yard lines obviously helped, but when Joe Flacco is your quarterback, you have to expect to hand the opposing team some short fields with turnovers.
There are positives here, naturally built around Myles Garrett, who looks every bit as terrifying as we’ve come to expect on the edge. It’s fellow edge rusher Isaiah McGuire, though, who ranks third in pass rush win rate (33.3%) behind Nik Bonitto and Isaiah McGuire. Rookie Mason Graham has flashed on the interior, helping to create a near-safety against Joe Burrow in the opener. The defensive line isn’t a problem. It’s the cornerback position that is holding the Browns’ defense back.
0:56
Should fantasy managers bench WR Jerry Jeudy in Week 3?
Mike Clay explains why fantasy managers should bench WR Jerry Jeudy in the Browns’ Week 3 matchup against the Packers.
Without Emerson and with Denzel Ward limited to 38% of the defensive snaps because of cramps last week, the Browns couldn’t cover up the weakest spots in their lineup. Lamar Jackson threw three touchdown passes past Cameron Mitchell in the second half and leveraged his zone responsibilities for a fourth. In 2023, there was no obvious corner for opposing teams to attack.
On offense, well, the expectations weren’t high, and they’re being met. Flacco’s stunning run at the end of 2023 earned him another opportunity for the Browns this season, but he isn’t playing at that level. Through two weeks, his 36.7 QBR ranks 28th in the NFL. The Browns have been fine when they’ve protected Flacco, but under pressure he sure looks like a guy who has played more than 13,000 NFL snaps. On those plays, Flacco threw two picks against the Bengals and then went 6-of-18 for 24 yards under duress against the Ravens.
One thing that has worked, though, is rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr. Alongside David Njoku, Fannin has 12 catches for 111 yards and five first downs. It’s one thing to scheme up catches for a tight end, but Fannin has been able to run away from cornerbacks with his speed. He maxed out at 19 mph against the Ravens, a top speed only five other tight ends have topped on a single snap this season (per NFL Next Gen Stats).
The Browns have been a significantly more reliable offense leaning into those tight ends. They’ve run a 46% success rate in 12 personnel, a figure that drops to 34% when they replace one of those tight ends with a third wide receiver. Teams often post higher success rates in 12 personnel because of the situations in which they’re more likely to employ multiple tight end sets and trade that off by being more explosive in 11 personnel — but the Browns are averaging more yards per play in 12 personnel, too.
There are bright spots, but things might get uglier for Cleveland. The Browns’ next four games are against the Packers, Lions, Vikings and Steelers. They get three games against the AFC East afterward, but it would take an upset over what looks like the league’s best team Sunday afternoon to realistically keep their slim postseason hopes alive.
