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Bitcoin Options Signal Bearish Trend Ahead of $4.5B Expiry

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The Bitcoin options market is preparing for a high-stakes moment as over $4.5 billion in crypto options will expire on Friday. This includes $3.28 billion in Bitcoin contracts. The expiry coincides with the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, raising the potential for sudden market swings. 

A huge $4.5 billion worth of crypto options is set to expire this Friday, marking a crucial moment for the market. Most of this, about $3.28 billion, comes from Bitcoin options, making it one of the most closely watched expiries of the year.

According to Deribit, a large number of put options are clustered between the $105,000 and $110,000 strike prices. It looks like a lot of traders do not want to take the risk by hedging their positions, just in case Bitcoin’s price takes a dip. 

🚨 Options Expiry Alert 🚨

At 08:00 UTC on Friday, over $4.5B in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit.$BTC: $3.28B notional | Put/Call: 1.38 | Max Pain: $112K
OI tilted toward puts, with notable clustering around $105K–110K strikes.$ETH: $1.27B notional | Put/Call:… pic.twitter.com/MUYoXboFfn

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) September 4, 2025

On the other hand, Ethereum options sit at $1.27 billion, an even trading activity. There’s an increase in call options above $4,500, which suggests more hope among traders about Ethereum’s price compared to Bitcoin. Right now, the max pain level for ETH is at $4,400, so that’s definitely a key level to keep an eye on.

Volatility Remains Subdued Despite Market Rebound

September started with a quiet tone that was at the end of August. Volatility is moderate and volumes are modest.. Bitcoin perpetual funding rates, which help align futures with spot prices, have cooled to 6% after hitting double digits. Open interest has also fallen, with just over 720,000 contracts denominated in BTC still active.

Greeks.live reported that near-term implied volatility for Bitcoin sits near 35% or lower. Ethereum’s volatility is higher, hovering around 65%, though its recovery has been weaker. 

“Despite Bitcoin’s solid rebound over the past two days, the options market has shown muted reactions,” Greeks.live stated on X. This shows that traders expect limited volatility in September, even with major economic data releases ahead.

Institutions Expand Activity as Outlook Shifts

CME Group highlighted record growth in crypto derivatives, with open interest hitting $36 billion in August. Large open interest holders reached 1,006, showing a broader range of institutional participation beyond Bitcoin.

According to the chart shared by Greeks.live, outlining Bitcoin’s expected price volatility, there are expected fluctuations in the coming months. On September 5, both short-term and forward volatility were at 29.49%. 

Bitcoin ATM Volatility Term Structure, Source: Greek.live

Thereafter, forward volatility is likely to drop on September 7 as per the chart and then start rebounding gradually as prices move into late 2025 and early 2026. 

The massive expiry of Friday’s Bitcoin options may decide the direction of the market. Although volatility at present is low, traders will remain on the lookout for bigger swings in the coming months.

Also Read: Outflows from Galaxy Digital Sparks Fear of Bitcoin Selling Pressure





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Gold nears record high. (Jingming Pan/Unsplash)
GameFi Guides

XRP Breaks $2.80 as Bearish September Begins, Oversold Signals Suggest Recovery Ahead

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News Background

  • XRP declined 4% from $2.85 to $2.75 in the 24-hour session ending Sept. 1 at 02:00, moving across a $0.12 (4%) range.
  • Market turbulence was amplified by institutional liquidation flows totaling $1.9B since July, prompting fears of cyclical exhaustion.
  • In contrast, whales accumulated 340M XRP over the past two weeks, highlighting contradictory behavior between large holders and short-term liquidators.
  • September seasonality and ongoing regulatory pressure in the U.S. add to caution: crypto markets have historically underperformed in September, while unresolved SEC actions keep institutions wary.
  • On-chain data shows activity on the XRP Ledger trending higher, with symmetrical-triangle formations reminiscent of 2017 pre-breakout conditions. Liquidity maps suggest concentrations up to $4.00 that could amplify any upside move.

Price Action Summary

  • The sharpest decline came at 23:00 GMT on Aug. 31, when XRP dropped from $2.80 to $2.77 on 76.87M volume, nearly triple the daily average of 27.3M.
  • Support was tested again during the final hour (01:31–02:30 GMT, Sept. 1) as price fell from $2.77 to $2.75, with spikes of 10M+ tokens per minute confirming forced liquidations.
  • Earlier in the day, XRP briefly touched $2.87 before retreating, as institutional selling capped rallies above $2.80.

Technical Analysis

  • Support: $2.75–$2.77 remains the immediate base; below this, $2.50 and $2.00 are critical longer-term levels.
  • Resistance: Heavy rejection at $2.80–$2.87 marks the ceiling for now; $3.30 is the higher-term breakout line.
  • Momentum: RSI dipped into the mid-40s before stabilizing, suggesting oversold conditions.
  • MACD: Bearish divergence persists but histogram compression points to potential crossover if accumulation continues.
  • Patterns: Symmetrical triangle + double-bottom formations align with long-term cup-and-handle structure. Analysts flag upside potential to $5–$13 if resistance breaks and liquidity pockets above $4.00 are tapped.
  • Volume: The 76.87M spike during the $2.80 breakdown confirms distribution, but whale absorption of 340M tokens in the background supports the case for accumulation.

What Traders Are Watching

  • Can $2.75 hold as the new floor into early September trading?
  • A close above $2.87 would flip bias toward a run at $3.30.
  • Divergence between institutional selling ($1.9B since July) and whale accumulation (340M tokens in August) as a key market driver.
  • Whether seasonal September weakness overrides bullish structural setups pointing to $5–$13.



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16:9 Market growth, surge, rally(Mediamodifier/Pixabay)
GameFi Guides

Pump.fun Bucks Bearish Market Trend Amid Wave of Buybacks

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Pump.fun’s native token, PUMP, has bucked the market-wide downturn this week, rising by 17% as the protocol leverages platform fees to repurchase tokens.

The buybacks are designed to support holders by reducing circulating supply and absorbing sell pressure, a model increasingly common across crypto projects.

At the time of publishing, PUMP is trading at $0.0035, about 40% higher than a month ago but still down 50% from its July debut, when it quickly fell from $0.007 to $0.0024 in just 10 days.

The sharp post-launch decline reflected the fading of initial hype, but recent momentum suggests buybacks are helping stabilize the token’s market.

The driver is Pump.fun’s revenue engine. The platform earns fees on every token created through its service, a model that has generated $734 million over the past year, with volumes peaking in January during the boom in celebrity-driven meme coins like TRUMP and MELANIA, along with thousands of copycat tokens that followed.

Since inception, more than 12.5 million tokens have been launched and 23 million wallets have interacted with the site, establishing a strong user base.

Those flows have translated into meaningful token support: Pump.fun has directed $59 million toward buybacks, according to Dune dashboards, helping to underpin PUMP’s rebound.

The timing could be fortuitous. Autumn has historically been a stronger season for digital assets after the summer lull, suggesting conditions could align for further upside.

Still, PUMP remains far from its launch highs, and its trajectory will depend on whether fee revenue can remain consistent in a slowing market.

Meanwhile, the majors remain under pressure: bitcoin is trading at $108,500 and ether at $4,337, both down between 6% and 7% this week.



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(CoinDesk)
GameFi Guides

Traders Tilt Bearish on August BTC, ETH Targets as Retail Lags Institutions

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Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

As East Asia begins its trading day, BTC is trading at $116,263, down 1.1% on the day and 2% lower on the week, according to CoinDesk market data, while ETH sits at $4,322, off 3.8% in the last 24 hours but still up 2.6% weekly.

The CoinDesk 20 (CD20), an index tracking the largest crypto assets, is down 2.4%.

Polymarket odds suggest traders are bracing for weakness through the end of August. The most likely outcome for BTC is now a close below $111,000 with a 34% probability, while ETH’s highest-weighted scenario is a finish near $4,800 at 43%.

Enflux, a Singapore-based market maker, said the market is being pulled in two directions.

“The market remains caught between strong underlying institutional conviction, highlighted by Strategy Inc.’s additional 430 BTC purchase and structural financing shift, and a lack of immediate retail follow-through,” it wrote in a note to CoinDesk.

Enflux pointed to VanEck’s reiterated $180,000 year-end bitcoin target as evidence that institutions are positioning for continuation, even as retail-favored narratives such as XRP and DOGE have been capped by the SEC’s delays on ETF approvals.

Solana remains an exception, Enflux wrote, with “quiet strength” from its dominance in USDC transfers and PumpFun’s share of new token issuance.

Still, derivatives positioning shows caution.

QCP reported in a recent market update that perpetual funding rates turned negative over the weekend, a setup that preceded earlier pullbacks, and options skews now favor puts across maturities.

The result is a market that looks structurally supported at the top but tactically defensive into Thursday’s Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to address policy under the weight of higher-than-expected inflation and a White House that continues to challenge the Fed’s neutrality.

With crypto search interest at a four-year high and the GENIUS Act sailing through Washington, and now in the hands of regulators, the foundation for a broader rally is still being built.

But for now, prediction markets and price action suggest conviction is concentrated at the top, while flows remain selective.

(CoinDesk)

Market Movers

BTC: Bitcoin swung between $114,993 and $117,620 on August 18, with volumes far above average as traders digested Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s clarification that strategic reserves would be filled through budget-neutral acquisitions rather than direct government purchases as well as anticipated the upcoming Jackson Hole summit where Jerome Powell is expected to outline the case for keeping rates as is.

ETH: Ethereum fell 3% to $4,330.61 on Aug. 18 amid heavy volatility and repeated resistance near record highs, even as U.S. spot ETFs drew $3.71 billion of inflows in stark contrast to ongoing retail selling.

Gold: Gold hovered near $3,333–$3,394 an ounce Monday, rising in early U.S. trading as position-squaring set in ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, where Chair Jerome Powell may hint at September rate cuts, while traders also weighed U.S.-Ukraine diplomacy and broader geopolitical uncertainties shaping haven demand.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks mostly slipped Tuesday ahead of White House talks between Trump, Zelenskyy and European leaders, though Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged up 0.1% and the Topix was flat.

S&P 500: U.S. stocks were little changed Monday as the summer rally showed signs of fatigue ahead of Fed minutes, major retail earnings, and Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech later this week.

Elsewhere in Crypto

  • U.S. Treasury Department Starts Work on GENIUS, Gathering Views on Illicit Activity (CoinDesk)
  • After Attacking Monero, Qubic Sets Its Sights on Dogecoin—Here’s Why (Decrypt)
  • Michael Saylor Eases Stock-Sale Limits as Bitcoin Premium Falls (Bloomberg)



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