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(CoinDesk)
GameFi Guides

Traders Tilt Bearish on August BTC, ETH Targets as Retail Lags Institutions

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Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

As East Asia begins its trading day, BTC is trading at $116,263, down 1.1% on the day and 2% lower on the week, according to CoinDesk market data, while ETH sits at $4,322, off 3.8% in the last 24 hours but still up 2.6% weekly.

The CoinDesk 20 (CD20), an index tracking the largest crypto assets, is down 2.4%.

Polymarket odds suggest traders are bracing for weakness through the end of August. The most likely outcome for BTC is now a close below $111,000 with a 34% probability, while ETH’s highest-weighted scenario is a finish near $4,800 at 43%.

Enflux, a Singapore-based market maker, said the market is being pulled in two directions.

“The market remains caught between strong underlying institutional conviction, highlighted by Strategy Inc.’s additional 430 BTC purchase and structural financing shift, and a lack of immediate retail follow-through,” it wrote in a note to CoinDesk.

Enflux pointed to VanEck’s reiterated $180,000 year-end bitcoin target as evidence that institutions are positioning for continuation, even as retail-favored narratives such as XRP and DOGE have been capped by the SEC’s delays on ETF approvals.

Solana remains an exception, Enflux wrote, with “quiet strength” from its dominance in USDC transfers and PumpFun’s share of new token issuance.

Still, derivatives positioning shows caution.

QCP reported in a recent market update that perpetual funding rates turned negative over the weekend, a setup that preceded earlier pullbacks, and options skews now favor puts across maturities.

The result is a market that looks structurally supported at the top but tactically defensive into Thursday’s Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to address policy under the weight of higher-than-expected inflation and a White House that continues to challenge the Fed’s neutrality.

With crypto search interest at a four-year high and the GENIUS Act sailing through Washington, and now in the hands of regulators, the foundation for a broader rally is still being built.

But for now, prediction markets and price action suggest conviction is concentrated at the top, while flows remain selective.

(CoinDesk)

Market Movers

BTC: Bitcoin swung between $114,993 and $117,620 on August 18, with volumes far above average as traders digested Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s clarification that strategic reserves would be filled through budget-neutral acquisitions rather than direct government purchases as well as anticipated the upcoming Jackson Hole summit where Jerome Powell is expected to outline the case for keeping rates as is.

ETH: Ethereum fell 3% to $4,330.61 on Aug. 18 amid heavy volatility and repeated resistance near record highs, even as U.S. spot ETFs drew $3.71 billion of inflows in stark contrast to ongoing retail selling.

Gold: Gold hovered near $3,333–$3,394 an ounce Monday, rising in early U.S. trading as position-squaring set in ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, where Chair Jerome Powell may hint at September rate cuts, while traders also weighed U.S.-Ukraine diplomacy and broader geopolitical uncertainties shaping haven demand.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks mostly slipped Tuesday ahead of White House talks between Trump, Zelenskyy and European leaders, though Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged up 0.1% and the Topix was flat.

S&P 500: U.S. stocks were little changed Monday as the summer rally showed signs of fatigue ahead of Fed minutes, major retail earnings, and Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech later this week.

Elsewhere in Crypto

  • U.S. Treasury Department Starts Work on GENIUS, Gathering Views on Illicit Activity (CoinDesk)
  • After Attacking Monero, Qubic Sets Its Sights on Dogecoin—Here’s Why (Decrypt)
  • Michael Saylor Eases Stock-Sale Limits as Bitcoin Premium Falls (Bloomberg)



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Crypto Trends

Bitcoin Bearish Bets Mount: Funding Rates On Binance Slides Into Negative Territory

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As Bitcoin gradually recovers from its recent breakdown below the $100,000 mark, it appears to have triggered a fresh wave of bearish activity from investors. Its market dynamics are about to transition as key metrics such as the Funding Rates on the Binance platform have taken a negative turn.

Binance Traders Betting Against Bitcoin

In a dramatic bounce, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $105,000 price mark and is slowly approaching $106,000. While BTC has recovered, the impressive run has been met with negative sentiment, particularly from investors on Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange.

Darkfost, a verified author for CryptoQuant, reported that funding rates on the Binance exchange have declined sharply, signaling a shift in trader sentiment. Data from the expert reveals that the rates dropped to the -0.0033 level just as BTC swiftly bounced back since this past weekend.

This scenario implies that traders are progressively placing bets on further decline, indicating that bearish pressure is building on Binance. Negative funding rates may signal pessimism, but historically, they have also preceded short squeezes. As the price of Bitcoin navigates increased volatility and shifting momentum, this is a crucial period to observe.

According to the on-chain expert, negative financing rates suggest that most open positions are currently short as investors question whether the recent upward move is sustainable. Although this may initially appear to be negative, markets often move against the crowd, particularly when there is an overcrowded short side.

BTC funding rates on Binance trend negative | Source: Darkfost on X

Furthermore, Darkfost has drawn attention to past scenarios, particularly in September last year. During the period, the market constantly shifted in the opposite direction whenever Binance’s funding rates fell into negative territory, whether in the short or medium term.

However, the sole exception was when new tariff policies were announced, momentarily altering market dynamics. If shorts persistently increase on the Binance platform, Darkfost is confident that these positions could eventually bolster the rally that started earlier this week.

Thus far, the expert has offered one key takeaway, stating that it is crucial to understand that the natural tendency of traders leans toward longing the market, which makes this current signal more remarkable.

BTC To Surge To A New All-Time High

After rallying earlier this week, BTC is currently facing significant resistance at the $106,500 threshold. However, this resistance level could give way soon, as Michael Van De Poppe, a market expert, has predicted a major rally to new all-time highs.

According to the expert, Bitcoin is stalling at levels below $106,500 until the next significant surge to new highs occurs. Van De Poppe believes that the anticipated move is only a matter of time, and BTC is likely to reach a new peak in July. Therefore, the expert suggests “buying the dip now is the best strategy.”

BTC trading at $106,332 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.



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XRP Price Completes Bearish Retest As Macro Signals Point To $2.65

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Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto has revealed that the XRP price has completed its bearish retest, following the recent decline below the $2 level. The altcoin is now eyeing a bullish reversal, and the analyst has predicted that it could rally to as high as $2.65. 

XRP Price Eyes $2.65 Following Completion of Bearish Retest

In an X post, Egrag Crypto stated that the key breakout zones are the narrow range between $2.30 and $2.33 and the macro signaling level at $2.65. This came as the analyst indicated that the XRP price has completed its retest of the $1.90 and $2 range, which he had earlier predicted. 

Commenting on the current XRP price action, Egrag Crypto stated that the next move depends on whether the altcoin breaks above $2.08. If not, he warned that XRP could again retest the lows around $1.9. On the other hand, if it closes above $2.08 within the first 12 hours, along with daily and higher timeframes candles closure, then it would signal that “bulls are stepping in aggressively.” 

Source: Egrag Crypto on X

A successful close above this level could trigger a rally to these breakout zones at the narrow range between $2.30 and $2.33 and the macro signaling level at $2.65. Egrag Crypto indicated $2.65 was the level that could pave the way for a massive surge to a new high. His accompanying chart showed that $3.4 is a level of interest for the XRP price if it reclaims $2.65. 

This Is The Final Shakeout For XRP

In an X post, crypto analyst CasiTrades provided a bullish outlook for the XRP price, declaring that this recent decline is not a failure but the final shakeout. She remarked that XRP is delivering the price action she has been looking for. This includes the bullish divergence, which formed following the altcoin’s decline to the $1.90 level. 

CasiTrades drew attention to the Bitcoin price action, which she said has built her confidence in the XRP price bullish setup. She claimed that BTC is showing the same structure as the altcoin. Over the past week, the flagship crypto approached its major .236 retracement near $97,000. BTC came shy of this level, bounced back, and now looks ready for that final sweep to support. 

The analyst affirmed that there will be a heavy confluence if BTC tags that level while XRP hits $1.90. CasiTrades mentioned that both assets are showing this same “almost hit, bounce, final drop” behavior and that it is no coincidence. She claimed that the markets do this all the time when looking for fuel to launch a reversal. If the XRP price holds $1.90 and BTC reacts at $97,000, she declared that it is the kind of stacked signal the market has waited weeks for. 

At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $2, down over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

XRP trading at $1.9 on the 1D chart | Source: XRPUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.



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Ethereum Price To Resume Downtrend? Market Expert Identifies Bearish Chart Setup

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The Ethereum price made a swift and strong comeback at the beginning of the year’s second quarter, having struggled in the first few months of 2025. While the “king of altcoins” is in a much better place than it was a few months ago, ETH has not particularly impressed in the last few weeks.

The Ethereum price had been stuck within a consolidation range before falling to a new swing low over the past week. In the late hours of Saturday, June 21, the altcoin’s value fell below $2,300 in a single move, mirroring the brewing selling pressure in the market due to the escalating tensions in Asia.

Is ETH Price Bound For The $1,200 Level Again?

In a June 21st post on the X platform, Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Aksel Kibar painted an interesting bearish picture for the Ethereum price over the next few weeks. According to the market expert, the price of ETH could be gearing up for a period of significant downward movement.

The reasoning behind this bearish projection is the price movement of an ascending channel pattern on the Ethereum chart on the weekly timeframe. An ascending channel is a technical analysis pattern characterized by two major (upward-sloping) trendlines: the upper line linking the swing highs and the lower line connecting the swing lows.

Typically, the ascending channel pattern suggests the persistence of an upward price trend. However, a breakout of this channel can be used to identify a trend reversal or continuation. For instance, if a breakout occurs beneath the lower trendline, it suggests that there might be a shift from an upward trend to a downtrend. 

Source: @TechCharts on X

As shown in the chart above, this breakdown was the case for the Ethereum price when it succumbed to significant bearish pressure earlier this year. The altcoin’s value plunged to as low as $1,200 in early April before witnessing a strong resurgence back above the $2,000 level.

In his post on X, Kibar posited that the recent bullish momentum seen with the Ethereum price could be a mere retest of the broken lower channel boundary. If this is the case, the price of ETH may be headed back to $1,200 or even lower — around the $900 region.

Ethereum Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of ETH sits just beneath the $2,300 level, reflecting an over 5% decline in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the altcoin is down by nearly 9% on the weekly timeframe.

The price of ETH on the daily timeframe | Source: ETHUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.



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GameFi Guides

Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Price Prediction: Bearish Action Ahead?

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The crypto market is on the verge of closing another week this month on a bearish note. This suggests a strong selling pressure for the tokens in the market. Many reasons are being considered for the ongoing negative outlook, such as rising geopolitical tensions between multiple nations, unstable market conditions, and disruption of financial markets.

This has led to the price of Bitcoin losing momentum this week. On the other hand, the altcoin market has witnessed a similar price action as top cryptocurrencies have slit significant values from their respective portfolios. Where is the crypto market headed next week? Let’s dig into the answers.

Bitcoin Price Retests Its Pivotal Support Zone

With a drop of approximately 1%, the BTC price has approached its crucial support zone around the $102,500 in the daily time frame. This zone plays an important role as Bitcoin has successfully maintained its value above this range since May. Moreover, with a listing price of $102,616 and a trading volume of $34.235 billion, it has a dominance of 64.4432% with a market capitalization of $2.034 trillion.

Bitcoin price chart, Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a rising red histogram in the daily time frame, suggesting increasing bearish momentum in the market. With its EMA 12 and 26-day recording a constant decline, the largest cryptocurrency may retest its lower support zones soon.

If the market holds the BTC price above $102,470, this could result in it retesting its upper price targets of $104,810 or $107,218 during the upcoming week. Conversely, increased selling pressure could lead the price toward its immediate support trend levels of $102,470 or $100,000 respectively.

Ethereum Price Crash to $2,200 Next Week?

After trading within a consolidated trend since 10th of May, the ETH price is once again hovering extremely close to its key support zone of $2,350. This price zone has acted as a strong support of the largest altcoin, however, amid the ongoing market sentiments, it could break down its support.

The ETH price is valued at $2,387 with a trading volume of $12.353 billion, a change of -38.06%. With this, the market cap of Ethereum price has dropped to $288.38 billion and a dominance of 9.0984%.

Ethereum price chart, Source: TradingView (ETH/USDT)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fails to hold its value above its neutral point (50), resulting in it recording a sudden drop. With a current value of 40.74, the technical sentiments suggest a further drop this week before a potential situation arises for a healthy bounceback.

Suppose the bulls rebuild momentum, the Ethereum price will retest its immediate target price of $2,600 that was last recorded on June 13. However, a retest to a multi-month low of $2,200 cannot be ignored as the bears continue dominating the cryptocurrency market.

XRP Price Witnesses Increased Liquidations

The XRP price has breached its important support level of $2.14 multiple times this month, highlighting a constant bearish presence. However, it has now formed a new imaginary support around the $2.08 mark, making it a potential reversal point for the altcoin.

Although a reversal angle is being built, the current market sentiments hints at a negative price target for the upcoming week. With a trading price of $2.08, its market cap stands at $122.189 billion.

XRP price chart, Source: TradingView (XRP/USDT)

The Stochastic RSI indicator is retesting its oversold range today. Notably, the averages in the 3-day frame that are blue and orange show signs of extreme negative sentiment. While the orange trendline is just above the oversold range at 23.60, the blue trendline has plunged to 8.42 today.

If XRP price regains the value above the $2.14 level, this may set a base for it to retest its upper price targets of $2.35 or $2.57 next week. On the contrary, a rising bearish sentiment could pull the price of XRP token toward its crucial support of $2 or $1.94 soon.

Also Read: Crypto Price Today (June 21): Altcoins Drop! AB, VIRTUAL, SPX, UNI Crash 10%



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Crypto Trends

BTC Struggling to Recover; Analytics Firm Flags Bearish Sentiment and Trader Impatience

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Bitcoin (BTC)

continues to struggle for direction amid mounting macroeconomic pressures and a notable deterioration in retail investor sentiment. The asset is hovering near $103,700 following a volatile 24-hour stretch, in which it briefly dropped below $103,400 before staging a modest recovery, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model. This price behavior reflects an uneasy market backdrop, shaped by both geopolitical tensions and uncertain monetary policy.

According to an X post by crypto analytics firm Santiment on Thursday, sentiment among retail investors has turned sharply negative. The firm reported that the ratio of bullish to bearish commentary has fallen to just 1.03 to 1 — the lowest since early April, when the President Donald Trump unveiled his so-called Liberation Day tariffs, triggering peak market fear at the time.

Santiment emphasized that this current wave of retail pessimism is unusually intense and, based on past patterns, may mark a contrarian signal for a price rebound. They specifically noted that back in April, Bitcoin rallied shortly after similar fear levels surfaced, suggesting large investors often use periods of retail capitulation to accumulate at favorable prices.

Adding to the pressure is the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hold interest rates steady, which has kept btcoin trading in a relatively tight $100,000 to $110,000 range over the past month. Meanwhile, on-chain metrics show declining open interest on Binance, pointing to continued deleveraging among derivatives traders. At the same time, whale wallets have shown steady accumulation since 2023 — an indication that large holders are continuing to build their positions despite the short-term uncertainty.

Technical Analysis Highlights

  • BTC-USD traded in a 24-hour range between $106,552.98 and $102,411.01, a 3.89% swing as volatility spiked midday.
  • A sharp drop occurred between 14:00 and 17:00 UTC, pushing price below $104,000 and forming strong resistance near $106,000 on above-average volume.
  • Support emerged between $103,000 and $103,500, where price consolidated on declining volume during the final eight hours of the analysis period.
  • A V-shaped rebound developed late in the session, with BTC rising from $103,363 to $103,618 and establishing a local floor near $103,500.
  • Short-term momentum indicators showed mild recovery as the session closed near intraday highs, but follow-through remained limited.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.



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Bitcoin Bearish Move Is Over? Higher Lows Chart A Course To $115,482

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Bitcoin is still trending above $100,000 despite having seen a turn toward negative sentiment in the last week. This suggests that this is the major level to hold for bulls, or the bullish trend would be invalidated. Amid this, there have been wild fluctuations in the daily trading volume of the cryptocurrency as investors remain highly uncertain of what is supposed to come next. While some predict the digital asset to crash further from here, others like crypto analyst Master Ananda see a continuation of the uptrend.

Why Bitcoin Price Is Headed For $115,482

In an analysis, Master Ananda has suggested that the Bitcoin price will reverse, and not just that, but that the digital asset would rise to new all-time highs from here. The first pointer was toward the market crash back on June 13 that sent the price spiraling toward $100,000. However, it was stopped short above $102,000, and the crypto analyst believes that this shows that the bearish move was over.

With the recovery, the Bitcoin price has continued to trade above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, putting it back on the path of bulls. Furthermore, the Bitcoin price has also moved above major levels such as the EMA34, EMA21, 3MA13, and the EMA8, according to the analyst.

From here on, the levels that the Bitcoin price needs to hold are the $105,293 and $105,314 support levels. Holding these levels would provide the needed strength for the cryptocurrency to continue rising further. But a fall from here would mean that the next support to hold would be at $104,533 and $104,282, Master Ananda explained. This is because this would put the price right at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.

Source: TradingView

Why A Bounce Could Mean New All-Time Highs

On the flip side of the support levels are the resistance levels that the Bitcoin price must surmount in order to actually make a notable rally. Here, the main levels lie above $016,625 and then $107,559. Both of these act as resistance strongholds for bears, as has been shown by the price action over the last week.

If the resistance at the latter can be surmounted, then the next level to beat lies at $018,989. Then, moving forward, $110,586 stands in the way, and how the bulls perform at this level would be a determinant of whether the Bitcoin price would reach new all-time highs or decline back toward $100,000.

According to the crypto analyst’s charts, the Bitcoin price would target $115,482 as its final stop on this rally. As the crypto analyst explained, “The 1H timeframe is bullish now based on price action, candlestick patterns, higher lows, moving averages, and the oscillators.”

BTC struggles against bearish pressure | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.



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BTC's daily chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)
Crypto Trends

BTC Revisits 50-Day Average Support, XRP Risks DOGE-Like Bearish Shift in Momentum

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This is a daily technical analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

There is an old saying, “Once is a chance, twice is a coincidence, and a third time is a trend.”

It applies to bitcoin

right now. The cryptocurrency’s price has fallen back to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which offered support on two occasions this month, leading to price bounces.

Therefore, the latest re-test of the average presents an opportunity for the bulls to establish a trend in which the 50-day SMA powers new legs higher. Conversely, the fall of the 50-day SMA support could invite stronger selling pressure, potentially leading to a dip below $100,000.

At press time, the bear case appears strong due to signs of bull fatigue, as evident from the recent shallow bounces from the 50-day SMA. The first test of the average on June 5 produced a bounce from roughly $100,500 to over $10,000. However, the second test of the SMA on June 17 saw prices bounce only from $103,000 to $109,000.

The past week’s Doji candle also suggests bull fatigue above $100,000.

A high-volume move above $110,000 is needed to restore the immediate bullish outlook.

BTC’s daily chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

XRP headed the DOGE way?

Payments-focused cryptocurrency XRP

is trading at the lower end of the Ichimoku cloud, a momentum indicator based on several moving average variants and developed by a Japanese journalist in the 1960s.

Crossovers above and below the cloud are said to represent bullish and bearish shifts in momentum.

When an asset’s price crosses below the cloud, as dogecoin

did early this month, it typically signals a bearish trend. Traders often interpret this as a signal to consider selling or shorting the asset, especially if other macro or technical indicators confirm the signal.

XRP’s 50-day SMA has already crossed below the 200-day SMA to confirm the so-called death cross, a bearish indicator. Therefore, a potential move below the Ichimoku cloud could prove costly for the bears, potentially opening the door for a slide below $2.

XRP, DOGE price chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

On the charts, support is seen directly at $ 1.60, the early April low. Coins like DOGE, ADA, and LINK have dropped below their respective Ichimoku clouds in recent days, resulting in price losses.



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Crypto Trends

Altcoin Chart Transitions From Bearish To Bullish, Is It Time For Alt Season?

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Altcoins are beginning to show fresh momentum, as the Total3 chart, representing the combined market capitalization of all altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has just transitioned from a bearish to bullish structure. According to a new analysis, the breakout signals a potential trend reversal, raising the possibility that the market could be entering the early stages of the long-awaited alt season. 

Altcoin Chart Bullish Breakout Signals Alt Season

Crypto market expert Trader Tardigrade’s new technical analysis of the TOTAL3 chart has officially flipped bullish, showcasing a notable transition from a previously bearish structure into a potentially explosive setup. The analyst is currently closely watching this shift, as it may signal the early stages of an upcoming altcoin season.

According to the altcoin TOTAL3 chart, the market had initially completed a textbook Double Top pattern, a well-known bearish reversal signal. This pattern was clearly defined by two consecutive price peaks—both labeled as “Top” on the price chart—that failed to break higher, ultimately leading to a sharp sell-off and decline. 

The breakdown from this structure confirmed a bearish phase, with the price ultimately reaching its projected target to the downside. This target zone is visibly marked on the chart, showing the Double Top pattern has fully played out. 

Source: Trader Tardigrade on X

Following this bearish move, Trader Tardigrade’s chart analysis shows that the market began to consolidate and gradually build what now appears to be a classic Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. Notably, the neckline of this pattern, marked clearly on the chart around the $920 billion level, is the key resistance threshold. 

A confirmed breakout above this neckline would validate the Inverse Head and Shoulders formation, signaling a transition into a “super bullish phase” for the broader altcoin market. Trader Tardigrade’s chart also projects a potential target of approximately $1.29 trillion if this breakout occurs.

At present, the price action of the TOTAL3 chart is forming the right shoulder, which is a critical phase in the development of the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. While confirmation is still pending, the formation of this bullish setup following the completion of a previously bearish structure marks a significant development. If the neckline is broken with convincing volume and momentum, it could act as the trigger to a potentially strong altcoin season.

Altcoin Season 2025 To Mirror 2024 Rally

In a follow-up post, Trader Tardigrade released a technical chart comparison, which suggests the altcoin season could start in the next few weeks. This time, the analysis focuses on the TOTAL2 index, which tracks the total market capitalization of all altcoins. 

The side-by-side chart compares the market behavior from late 2023 through early 2024 with the current price action from April through June 2025. In both periods, the market shows an initial strong upward move followed by a period of consolidation inside a descending channel. In early 2024, this channel breakout led to a significant altcoin rally.

Notably, the current 2025 chart appears to be repeating the same descending channel, with Trader Tardigrade projecting a potential altcoin season after the market experiences a pullback and breaks out of its present consolidation pattern.

Overall crypto market cap excluding BTC at $1.15 trillion | Source: TOTAL2 on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.



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Bitcoin Takes Aim At New Highs Despite Bearish Factors
Crypto Trends

Bitcoin Takes Aim At New Highs Despite Bearish Factors

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Key takeaways:

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed $108,000 on Monday after retesting the $104,000 support level over the weekend. The gains came as conflict broke out in the Middle East and investors scaled back expectations for interest rate cuts in the United States, signaling stronger confidence in Bitcoin’s upside potential.

Traders’ sentiment remained steady despite the worsening socio-economic outlook, as shown by Bitcoin derivatives metrics.

Bitcoin 30-day futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The Bitcoin futures premium reached 5% on Monday, the baseline for neutral markets. These monthly contracts typically trade at a 5% to 10% premium to account for the longer settlement period. Although below the 8% recorded in late May, there was little reaction during the $101,000 retest on June 5, indicating market resilience.

US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw $301.7 million in net inflows on Friday, and Strategy’s announcement of an additional $1.05 billion purchase on Monday helped ease traders’ concerns about a potential economic recession and the adverse effects of the conflict involving Iran, one of the world’s largest oil producers.

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF net flows, USD. Source: CoinGlass

Oil prices initially surged on Sunday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures reaching $78 before pulling back. By Monday, WTI futures had dropped to around $71.50 per barrel, a move that coincided with a 1.5% gain in Nasdaq futures. According to Yahoo Finance, market participants expect tensions in the Middle East to ease.

Bitcoin faces hurdles from energy costs and delayed Fed rate cuts

The path for Bitcoin to reclaim $110,000 may be more challenging than expected, as some analysts point to the risk of rising energy prices. Philippe Gijsels, chief strategy officer at BNP Paribas Fortis, told CNBC on Monday that “the market reaction has been very modest, so there is room for disappointment if things were to escalate.”

In addition to concerns over energy markets, heightened uncertainty is also reducing the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. Rising inflationary pressure has pushed traders to price in a 63% chance that the Fed will maintain rates at 4% or higher by November, up from 56% a month earlier, according to CME FEDWatch.

Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call). Source: laevitas.ch

Bitcoin traders’ growing confidence was also evident in the BTC options market, where the 25% delta skew (put-call) dropped to a neutral 1% on Monday, after reaching 6% on Sunday. Readings above 5% are generally seen as bearish, reflecting higher demand for protective put options from market makers and arbitrage desks.

Related: Trump’s Truth Social files S-1 for dual Bitcoin and Ether ETF

Bitcoin is trading just 4% below its $111,965 all-time high from May 22, despite mounting uncertainty and recession fears, while derivatives metrics remain neutral. This environment favors further price appreciation, as bears have failed to trigger panic amid escalating global tensions.

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research reportedly noted on Monday that US President Donald Trump “doesn’t seem as ready to pivot away from his trade war as hoped,” adding that the trade war debate is far from being over.

Ultimately, Bitcoin’s path to $112,000 remains closely tied to reduced tariff-related uncertainty, regardless of developments in the Middle East.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.



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