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Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $115,000 on Monday, August 18, 2025, confirming a decisive break from a two-month-long bull run. The price decline was a 7.6% drop from its new All-Time High (ATH) of $124,501 set just four days prior. The drop was triggered by a breakdown from a key technical pattern known as a rising wedge, which had supported the asset’s price since mid-June.

Bitcoin started its rally in April this year with a series of higher lows in mid May and June, as well as in early August. The rally was strong enough to hit a new ATH. However, sellers finally overwhelmed buyers, pushing the price down even as bulls are fighting to protect important levels of support. 

On-chain data and technicals point to the potential of a mixed short- to medium-term view for bitcoin price. Let’s evaluate the data to determine the potential trend of this digital asset.

Daily Active Addresses Record A Steep Drop

The active number of the addresses signifies the number of active wallet addresses of an asset. Over here, Bitcoin has been ranging between 700,000 and 1.2 million in the course of seven months. Although BTC continued to hit new highs, active participation has not always been on the rise, suggesting that the retail presence is not keeping up with the price action.

At the time of writing, according to data from CryptoQuant, the active address count peaked at 994,288 on August 14 but has since fallen by over 160,000 in just four trading sessions. 

Bitcoin Short-term Holders Offloading At A Loss

The Short Term Holders (STH) of Bitcoin have now begun to enter into the stage of loss realization that the market has not seen since January 2025, when the crypto sector underwent its worst correction of this cycle. In the period since, STHs had generally been selling at a profit as BTC trended up in the six-figure territory.

However, the most recent STH-SOPR has declined below 1, indicating that the most recent transactions are being executed at a loss. This can work both ways historically, as an extended period of selling can be representative of decaying momentum and the onset of a correction. Notably, brief pullbacks are sometimes healthy re-sets, eliminating lagging hands before the next higher leg occurs.

Bitcoin On Crossroads

The bitcoin chart given below highlights a rising wedge pattern in the daily time frame, a formation that typically signals weakening momentum despite higher highs and higher lows. Bitcoin is now trading within converging upward trendlines, showing that the buying pressure is slowing as price nears resistance. After reaching its all-time high around $124,000, BTC price faced rejection and is currently retesting the $115,000 support zone.

On the day of hitting ATH, a reversal began last week when a powerful “Bearish Engulfing” candle appeared. This signal, where a single day of selling completely erases the prior day’s gains, served as warning that buying pressure has been exhausted.

Following the Bearish engulfing candle, for the next two days, consequent ‘dojis’ were seen, where there is no significant price movement in either direction. Hence bitcoin now stands at a crossroad where bulls are unexpectedly startled by bears, evident by panic selling by STH holders, as per the on chain data.

The Bollinger Band (BB) is a key technical indicator as it is used to present an important area or to confirm the trend. Possible stabilization of the crypto market at this level might result in a potential reversal trend toward the $121,000 which is the upper trendline of the bollinger band, in this situation a major resistance.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator which is used to determine a trend pattern has plunged from near overbought, indicating a rapid shift in selling pressure. With it still standing in the middle at 45, a classic bearish divergence has formed. While the price set a higher high in August compared to July, the RSI set a lower high.

This suggests that the momentum behind the rally was fading significantly, often foreshadowing a price correction.

What’s Next For Bitcoin?

Considering the present market sentiment, the “make-or-break” level for Bitcoin price is in the range between $115,000 and $116,000.

• A successful defense of the $115,000 support may be followed by a push toward the upper target levels of $121,000 or its previous ATH of $124,000.
• Conversely, a breakdown below $115,000 would likely trigger a decline toward $110,000. In an extreme bearish scenario, the BTC price could go as low as $105,000.

Also Read: Bhutan Moves $92M in Bitcoin Amid Exchange Speculation 

Disclaimer: The Crypto Times does not endorse or promote this digital asset in any manner. This article was created only for educational purposes. Make sure to “DYOR” as the market is highly volatile. New positions should be done by traders being careful and awaiting volume-backed breakouts.

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