Bitcoin hovered around $111,500 on Monday, keeping a tight range as traders weigh macro catalysts for cues on positioning.
Ether (ETH) traded near $4,312, XRP held $2.96, BNB (BNB) at $880, and Solana’s SOL (SOL) climbed to $218. Dogecoin extended its 11.6% weekly gain to 24 cents, outpacing most major cryptocurrencies as the first-ever memecoin ETF looks set to go live for trading in the U.S. on Thursday.
The market tone stayed tentative. “Crypto prices treaded water much of the past week, but with BTC lagging noticeably both vs its peer group as well as vs equities and spot gold,” said Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, in a note to CoinDesk, pointing to softer buying in digital asset trusts and a pullback in on-ramp activity at centralized exchanges.
“The short-term picture looks a bit more challenging and we would prefer a more defensive stance consistent with the tough seasonal story. Keep an eye on DAT premia compressing and the risk of negative convexity on the downside,” Fan said, referring to the many digital asset treasuries held by U.S.-listed companies that have sprouted in recent months.
Macro could break the stalemate. “Markets are entering a decisive week as US data and central bank decisions converge,” said Lukman Otunuga, senior market analyst at FXTM, in an email.
He added a cooler CPI and any downward revision to payrolls would strengthen the case for Fed cuts, weaken the dollar and could lift alternative assets, while a sticky print would argue for patience and raise volatility across cryptoThat push and pull is mirrored in positioning.
“Investors are caught between turning bearish and risking missed upside, or buying the dip too early,” said Justin d’Anethan, founder of Poly Max Investment. He noted chatter about Strategy’s potential S&P 500 inclusion faded, denting the corporate treasury meme, yet public companies now hold about 1 million BTC.
“In the bigger picture, BTC consolidating around 111K is a fine place for long-term believers. Pullbacks of 10% to 15% inside bull runs have not historically broken the trend,” d’Anethan said.
For traders, the checklist is straightforward. Watch CPI and PPI for the policy path, the dollar for cross-asset risk appetite, and the DAT premium for any renewed knee-jerk selling into redemptions.
